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Nobel Peace Prize 2005: Nominations & Speculations
28 Sept.2005
PRIO is situated in the same city as the Nobel Institute, but has no formal links to it. Since no one at the Nobel Institute can indulge in speculation, and the nominators are requested not to publish their proposals, the PRIO Director is asked every year by a number of journalists to guess who will receive the prize.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee bases its assessment on valid nominations that they receive by 1 February each year. The members of the committee can also nominate candidates before their first meeting after the deadline. Following their first meeting, which was held on 22 February 2005, the Committee announced that 199 candidates have been nominated for the peace prize. The winner of the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on 7 October.
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PRIO Director's Top Three
The PRIO Director's four favourites for the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize (as based on possible angles that the Committee may take) are as follows:
Richard Lugar & Sam Nunn, Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR)
Bono, pop-star
Martti Ahtisaari, Crisis Management Initiative
Oxfam
1. Richard Lugar & Sam Nunn, Cooperative Threat Reduction
The Director has for several years mentioned US Senator Richard Lugar (Republican) and former Senator Sam Nunn (Democrat) as likely candidates for the Peace Prize for their Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) programme, which dismantles nuclear missiles and submarines to secure fissile materials in the states of the former Soviet Union.
Alternatively:
Since the Committee appears in recent years to be reluctant to give the prize to high-profile politicians, Nihon Hidankyo, an organization of the atomic-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, would be a good alternative for a prize aimed at the reduction of WMDs.
2. Bono
Bono, the front-man of Irish rock success U2, and tireless campaigner for third-world debt relief and the plight of Africa ever since his appearance in Band Aid in 1984. Speculations that he has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize have been around for years, and the committee might soon be prepared to award the prize to a pop-star..
Alternatively (or additionally):
Another rockstar and poltical activist, Bob Geldof started the supergroup Band Aid in 1984 to raise money and awareness for the famine in Ethiopia, and went on to organize Live Aid in1985, and Live 8 in 2005. It is confirmed that he has been nominated for next year's (2006) Nobel Peace Prize (but has not necessarily been nominated in 2005).
Another alternative is that the prize goes to a campaign that is backed by one of these two rockstars, such as Make Poverty History.
3. Martti Ahtisaari, Crisis Management Initiative
Former Finnish president (1994-2000) who just recently brokered a peace treaty between the government of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement though his NGO the Crisis Management Initiative (CMI). The candidates are highly relevant in 2005 since Aceh was the region hardest hit by the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004.
Tove Gravdal and Tor Arne Andreassen wrote in Aftenposten that the peace processes in Aceh and also South Sudan may inspire the peace prize. Sudan's vice president Ali Osman Taha, and the Kenyan mediator for the Sudan Peace Agreement, Lazaro Sumbeiywo, are obvious candidates in respect of the latter.
Alternatively:
No individual. There is no other peace process that has had any similar success in 2005, and the only other individual to have distinguished him or herself in connection with the tsunami is United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Jan Egeland. However, as a Norwegian, and a likely candidate for Foreign Minister in Norway's new cabinet, he'll probably not be considered. So the alternative is to award the prize to a humanitarian organization that has not won the prize before, like Save the Children or Oxfam (see 4.).
4. Oxfam
Oxfam International, founded in 1995, is a confederation of 12 independent, not-for-profit, secular, community-based aid and development organisations who work with local partners in over 100 countries worldwide to reduce poverty, suffering, and injustice.
Possible Angles
The Director's top-three speculations are based on the three most likely angles that the Nobel Committee may take on the 2005 prize.
1. Nuclear arms
The last time someone working specifically with nuclear arms and arms reductions got the prize was in 1995, when it – to everyone's surprise – went to Joseph Rotblat and Pugwash. Ten years before it went to International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. The 1975 prize to Andrei Sakharov was also related to his background as a nuclear physicist. Based on a cyclical theory, and also because 2005 represents the 60 year anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the committee may choose to award the prize to someone engaged in preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Chairman of the Nobel Committee Ole Danbolt Mjøs acknowledged to the Washington Post earlier this year that traditional criteria for the prize, such as "work on the reduction of arms and arms control", had gone "out of style", which may indicate a different angle on this year's prize. However, with the recent failure of the UN summit to agree on a text about non-proliferation of WMD, the Nobel Committee may see a need to remind the world once again of the threat from nuclear weapons.
2. Ecumenity/religious harmony/pop-stars
The Committee may favour an individual or humanitarian organization that has successfully worked to bridge the gap between religions. However, there are no obvious candidates.
Geir Lundestad speculates in his book (co-edited with Olav Njølstad) War & Peace in the 20th Century and Beyond on new dimensions to the peace prize. Published in 2002, he saw the rising importance of the environment to the Peace Prize, and in 2004 this came true when the prize was awarded to Wangari Maathai. He goes on to suggest that even pop-stars could become laureates in the future, stating parenthetically Bono and Geldof.
However, it is worth noting that Bono and Geldof have come under fire for getting too close to those in power, and legitimizing their actions, most notably by George Monbiot who dubbed them the Bards of the Powerful.
3. Poverty & Catastrophes
Organisations, and the individuals that front them, that have played an important role in providing humanitarian relief in the wake of several catastrophic natural disasters of the last year may be considered.
Mjøs also told the Washington Post that "a new criterion had been introduced…about how we live together, share resources… about preserving the Earth", so it seem entirely possible that the expansion of themes – as introduced last year with the prize to environmentalist Wangari Maathai – will lead to the consideration of humanitarian and crisis relief organizations (such as Save the Children and Oxfam) or the prominent individuals heading them who have made a difference (Martti Ahtisaari and Jan Egeland)
4. Female Activists
Since the committee, with a majority of female members, has awarded the prize to female activists and intellectuals the last two years, many speculate that they will do so again (one could speculate that for the same reason they will not do so again). Nominations for female activists and intellectuals appear to have increased.
Some of the more likely individuals include:
Rebiya Kadeer
Prisoner-of-conscience Rebiya Kadeer (now released) has struggled for Uyghur human rights in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (also known as East Turkistan), China, and winner of the 2004 Rafto prize.
Lida Yusupova
Lawyer and spokeswoman for the forgotten victims of the war in Chechnya, and winner of the 2005 Rafto prize.
Louisa Hanoun
Head of the Parti des Travailleurs (Labour Party), and the first woman to run for president in Algeria. She was imprisoned several times prior to the legalization of political parties in 1988, was one of the few opposition voices in parliament during the civil war, and is now a Member of Parliament.
It is worth also noting an organisation called '1000 Women for the Nobel Peace Prize 2005' that has been nominated as representative of a thousand different women (and symbolic of the many more) who are each engaged in working for a better future in their own way.
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NOMINEES
Because nominations are officially kept a secret, the list below is based on information leaked to the press/world wide web and could possibly be based on rumours and hearsay. It is by no means complete or assured, but represents the best possible list given the information present at the time of writing. For further information on the nomination process click here.
Confirmed Nominations:
[Although nominators are strongly requested not to publish their proposals, the following list of nominees is confirmed only to the extent that the nominators have apparently chosen to publicise their choice anyway]
Michael Scharf & Public International Law & Policy Group, nominated by six foreign governments for "significantly contributing to the promotion of peace throughout the globe by providing crucial pro bono legal assistance to states and nonstate entities involved in peace negotiations and in bringing war criminals to justice."
Mikhail Saakashvili, President of Georgia, nominated by, among others, U.S. Senators John McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Nihon Hidankyo, a Japanese organisation that represents a group of survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks, nominated by the The American Friends Service Committee, or Quakers (1947 Nobel Prize winner), and suggested by the Norwegian organization Nei til atomvåpen (No to Nuclear Weapons).
Mordechai Vanunu, released from prison in April 2004, Israeli nuclear technician, nominated by Mairead Corrigan Maguire (1976 Nobel Prize winner).
Peshawar City, North West Frontier Province (NWFP), nominated by Syed Imtiaz Hussain Gillani, the vice chancellor of the NWFP University of Engineering and Technology, and Lt. General (retired) Mumtaz Gul, vice chancellor of the University of Peshawar.
Viktor Yushchenko, President of Ukraine, nominated by five members of the EU Parliament: Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, vice president; Elmar Broek, chairman of the foreign affairs committee; Toomas Ilves, deputy of the foreign affairs committee; Marek Siwiec, chairman of the Ukraine committee; and Charles Tannock, vice chairman of the Ukraine committee.
Stanley "Tookie" Williams, LA gang leader on death row, nominated by a group of professors.
Possible Nominations:
[The following "possible" nominees are not confirmed. Although there is plenty of speculation in some cases, the nominators have apparently not chosen to publicly confirm their nominations]
Ms. Rebiya Kadeer, a prisoner of conscience in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (also known as East Turkistan), China, and winner of the 2004 Rafto prize.
Ms. Lida Yusupova, lawyer and spokeswoman for the forgotten victims of the war in Chechnya, and winner of the 2005 Rafto prize.
Save the Children
Oxfam
Colin Powell, former US secretary of state, & George W. Bush, US president, for their efforts to end Sudan's 21-year civil war (possibly nominatd by U.S. Congressmen Frank Wolf)
"Thousand Women for the Nobel Peace Prize 2005"
Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela
George Ryan, former Illinois Governor and anti-death penalty campaigner
Tiananmen Mothers of those killed in the 1989 massacre in Beijing
Salvation Army
Vaclav Havel, former Czech President
Comunità di Sant'Egidio
Hadassah Medical Organization
Taslima Nasreen, Bangladeshi writer
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraqi Shia cleric
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