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Due to the quirks of the RR tie-breaking system, the fact that the Djokovic/Tipsy match is 1st (and therefore Ferrer/Berdych will know the winner before they play), and presumed player incentives, Djokovic may actually have a better chance of advancing if he loses than wins.
Tipsy is eliminated (since he can only win one match and he'd lose any tie-breaker by virtue of having played fewer matches), Djokovic has no chance of finishing 1st and can only hope to finish 2nd, while the only way Ferrer can lose 1st is if he loses to Berdych and Djokovic loses to Tipsy. This is because Ferrer's 2-straight set wins would assure him of winning any 3-way tiebreaker (which is best sets percentage), but not the 2-way tiebreaker (which is H2H between the 2 tied players, in which case he'd lose to Berdych in this scenario). This is important, because if Djoker wins, Ferrer would clinch 1st, since even in a straight-sets loss to Berdych there would be a 3-way tie and Ferrer would still have the best sets record.
Thus, if Djoker beats Tipsy, Ferrer clinches 1st automatically and would presumably have very little incentive to beat or at least give full effort against Berdych in their night match (this is especially so since it's a Friday night match and he'd have to play a better-rested Tsonga on Saturday). Therefore, a Berdych win over Ferrer would be far more likely, since Berdych would have everything to play for and Ferrer essentially nothing. However, if Djoker loses to Tipsy, then a 3-way tie for 1st is impossible and Ferrer would need to beat Berdych in order to secure first (and play Tsonga rather than Federer in the Semis). Thus, Ferrer would have much more to play for and would therefore presumably be much more likely to win. If Djoker loses and then Ferrer beats Berdych, Berdych and Djoker would be in a 2-way tie for 2nd at 1-2, in which case Djoker would advance by virtue of beating Berdych in their H2H match.
To put it another way, here's how Djoker could advance based on his match result with Tipsy:
1) If he beats Tipsy in straight sets, he would advance if Ferrer won at least 1 set off Berdych (i.e: either a Ferrer match win or a Berdych win in 3 sets).
2) If he beats Tipsy in 3 sets, he would advance if Ferrer beat Berdych in their match outright.
3) If he loses to Tipsy, he would advance if Ferrer beat Berdych in their match outright.
At first glance it would seem Scenario #1 (beating Tipsy in straight sets) is most desirable for Djoker. However, as explained above, if Djoker wins, then Ferrer would clinch 1st and have no incentive in his match, while Berdych will be motivated to win in straight sets to take 2nd from Djoker. Thus, even though Ferrer would only need to win 1 set, that might not be very likely given his lack of clear motivation. Scenarios 2 and 3 are identical in theory, but since Ferrer would not have clinched 1st in Scenario 3 and therefore would still be highly motivated to beat Berdych (in essence they'd be playing for 1st place), this is far more desirable for Djokovic.
Therefore, a Djokovic match loss is definitely better for him than a 3-set win over Tipsy. It's more debatable whether Djokovic losing is better than a straight sets win, but the question essentially comes down to: is an unmotivated Ferrer more likely to win 1 set off Berdych than a motivated Ferrer is likely to win the match over Berdych? I would argue that a Ferrer motivated to finish 1st is a better bet to win the match than an unmotivated Ferrer already clinching 1st is to win a set off Berdych, and therefore Djokovic would be better off losing than winning even in straight sets.
The bottom line is if Djoker drops 1 set off Tipsy, he should without question tank and lose the match. Personally, I would go further and say he should tank to begin with even if he has the chance to win in straight sets, but that is much less clear-cut and you could probably make a good argument between Djoker winning in straights over losing his match outright.
