aus dem ba, gef?t mir..
This is a very interesting matchup. Well, everybody knows the developments Nadal made within the last months. He is playing on such a high level, it will be interesting to see if Nadal is able to keep this level during clay season, - he´s still 18 years old.
In Miami there was a lot of talk about Nadal giving the ball a kind of "special" spin and beeing a lefty. I think Nadal has an advantage nowadays beeing a lefty, cause there are only few really strong leftie´s on tour. If you read the Federer transcript after the final in Miami, you see that even Federer struggled cause of beeing not used to it. Also Federer talked about this kind of extra spin Nadal gives to the ball and that he had to adjust himself to it and play a little bit more patient.
So my conclusion is that Nadal is very very strong, but he gives his opponents some new defiances to handle, wich most players on the tour are not used to.
Ferrero is an exception, cause he is also part of spanish Davis Cup Team and as you know, normally a team prepares a whole week. (Mo. - Thu.)
So Nadal and Ferrero should have played some trainings together, especially in December 2004, when they played USA at home. Ferrero had some problems during this week with his hand and therefore Nadal was nominated to play the second single against Roddick. There was also some talk about Ferrero being really unhappy with this decision.
1. Ferrero will be absolutely motivated today, cause of prefering Nadal in David Cup final ´04
2. Ferrero tries to show his nation that he´s still No. 1 on clay, when injury free
3. and finally the most important fact - he knows him and his style of playing quite well, so he should be well prepared.
4. Maybe it´s mentally quite difficult for an 18 year old, to play Roger on Sunday and to be really prepared for "angry" and 100% motivated Ferrrero.
Considering these points, i give Ferrero a 55% chance to win and therefore it´s a value bet for me, with odds around 2,25 (pinnacle), but still a risky one.
