NBA 2017
E.Ilyasova [16.5] OVER 2,5/10 (wwin) Philadelphia
When Embiid is OUT, Ilyasova is great over. Embiid is someone who has great numbers, but he is also someone that force his shots a lot, takes many balls and can't say he finish well most of them. On other side, we have Ilyasova who should profit from Embiid not playing tonight. In last two games where Embiid didn't played, Ilyasova had 21 and 18 points (only 26 minutes played). He is taking solid amount of 3s, and he is good with them scoring around 40% this season (above 50% in recent time). His average for last 5 games is 18,6 which is well above this margin. Clippers without Grififn and CP are not so good defensive team, especially in away games and we saw that against Denver. On other saide, Phila is playing very well at home, they won against Hornets, won against Wizards, against Portland etc... Only thing that could make us fail is very bad % for 3 pt. Other bookies are having him at 17,5.
W.Barton [13.5] UNDER 3/10 (wwin) Denver
There is a huge difference for Barton when Harris is playing and when he is not. DIfference is sometimes almost 15 minutes which is a really big number when betting on player's performance. Last game, Harris played, and because of that Barton was on 26 minutes and scored only 1 points, while taking only 2 shots. Barton is also moved to bench now and because of that he can't get easy assists from Jokic, and he has to share ball with Chandler and Nelson who are very selfish players in my opinion (especially Chandler). What is also very important is that Barton is going against best defense in the league- Utah is known not only for great defense but for very slow pace of game which is very bad for Barton who gets most of his points form transition. Denver played three times against Utah this season, scoring only 98, 83 and 105 points. Barton in these games scored 20, 7 and 1 point which is 9 points on average, but we need to take in consideration that harris didn't play any of these 3 (plus, Denver had other injuries at that time). Rotowire is predicting Barton at 11 points. Crownbet got him at 11,5 margin which is more realistic (I think that margin should be 10,5) so I think that adds value here.
K.Lowry [25,5] UNDER 3/10 (paddypower/betfair) Toronto
Bookies don't agree on his margin and he is still at 23,5 on some bookies while you cna find him as high as 25,5. In morning I was choosing between playing him over 21,5 or under 25,5. Because that 21,5 margin on wwin got changed to 23,5, I decided to go with under. Lowry has around 23% usage rate, while having 27% when DeRozan isn't on floor. It is an increase, but not a huge one. In last 5 games Lowry has no overs on this margin (so 5/5 unders) and average of 19,8 points which is well under this margin. Season average is at 22,5 points. Spurs play really well defense overall as team, and they are especially good on SF and PG- they are by stats third best team in defense against PGs allowing around 20 points on average from there. With DeRozan being out, and Lowry being only real attacking option in Toronto, I think that Spurs will try to limit him as much as they can because that would lead to sure win. In last game, in big part of the game, Leonard was guarding Lowry and that have led to Lowry scoring (not kidding) only 6 points. Tonight, I think similar thing should happen against because playing time of these two is same (they are at same time on the floor) and there is huge chance that Leonard will guard Lowry. If that doesn't happen, there is also chance to see Lowry double guarded with help from Green. Lowry can't say he had good time in his career against Spurs- played 10 games and had average of 36 minutes (something similar to number expected tonight) and had average of only 17 points (almost 10 points lower than margin). In those 10 games he had only one over and it was overtime game with 60% for 3pt which was well above his average. Bookies expect Toronto under 100 points tonight and that is another plus. Rotowire predicts him at 19 points. I think this has great value here but again, we didn't saw many games without DeRozan, so sample is small and better to be a little secure here without huge bet.
E.Payton [15.5] OVER 3,5/10 (all bookies) Magic
I was choosing between Vucevic (lower bet) and Parton here. I decided with Payton because of several things and I will try to explain them all. I will start with his form. He has 4 overs in last 5 games with those of those being at only 24 and 29 minutes, while tonight he is expected at much more. His average in last 5 games is 21 points and he has these numbers: 23 against GSW, 20 against Bucks, 14 against NOP (24 minutes), 20 against Denver and 28 against Utah. Orlando is having big problem with injuries on guard positions and they are officially without Meeks for tonight. First back up fo Payton (he was a starter until Payton moved him to the bench) D.J.Augistin probably won't play tonight: he is walking without crutches but carefully. He isn't regarded as long term injury, but should miss Bulls game and maybe even one game after that. Fournier is regarded as GTD player, but he still don't have timeable return and wasn't part of practise (so isn't expected to play). With these injury problems, Payton should get minutes regardless of will there be blowout or not just like against GSW where he palyed close to 40 minutes and scored 23. Bulls are somewhat average in defense against PG position- Carter-williams is bellow average defender, Rondo is above average defender and I think that in time when Payton goes against CW he should score solid amount of points. What is a great thing here, is that Payton tends to "privatize" the ball some times, We saw it against Utah, Denver and GSw where he took 18, 17 and 17 shots.
E.Ilyasova [16.5] OVER 2,5/10 (wwin) Philadelphia
When Embiid is OUT, Ilyasova is great over. Embiid is someone who has great numbers, but he is also someone that force his shots a lot, takes many balls and can't say he finish well most of them. On other side, we have Ilyasova who should profit from Embiid not playing tonight. In last two games where Embiid didn't played, Ilyasova had 21 and 18 points (only 26 minutes played). He is taking solid amount of 3s, and he is good with them scoring around 40% this season (above 50% in recent time). His average for last 5 games is 18,6 which is well above this margin. Clippers without Grififn and CP are not so good defensive team, especially in away games and we saw that against Denver. On other saide, Phila is playing very well at home, they won against Hornets, won against Wizards, against Portland etc... Only thing that could make us fail is very bad % for 3 pt. Other bookies are having him at 17,5.
W.Barton [13.5] UNDER 3/10 (wwin) Denver
There is a huge difference for Barton when Harris is playing and when he is not. DIfference is sometimes almost 15 minutes which is a really big number when betting on player's performance. Last game, Harris played, and because of that Barton was on 26 minutes and scored only 1 points, while taking only 2 shots. Barton is also moved to bench now and because of that he can't get easy assists from Jokic, and he has to share ball with Chandler and Nelson who are very selfish players in my opinion (especially Chandler). What is also very important is that Barton is going against best defense in the league- Utah is known not only for great defense but for very slow pace of game which is very bad for Barton who gets most of his points form transition. Denver played three times against Utah this season, scoring only 98, 83 and 105 points. Barton in these games scored 20, 7 and 1 point which is 9 points on average, but we need to take in consideration that harris didn't play any of these 3 (plus, Denver had other injuries at that time). Rotowire is predicting Barton at 11 points. Crownbet got him at 11,5 margin which is more realistic (I think that margin should be 10,5) so I think that adds value here.
K.Lowry [25,5] UNDER 3/10 (paddypower/betfair) Toronto
Bookies don't agree on his margin and he is still at 23,5 on some bookies while you cna find him as high as 25,5. In morning I was choosing between playing him over 21,5 or under 25,5. Because that 21,5 margin on wwin got changed to 23,5, I decided to go with under. Lowry has around 23% usage rate, while having 27% when DeRozan isn't on floor. It is an increase, but not a huge one. In last 5 games Lowry has no overs on this margin (so 5/5 unders) and average of 19,8 points which is well under this margin. Season average is at 22,5 points. Spurs play really well defense overall as team, and they are especially good on SF and PG- they are by stats third best team in defense against PGs allowing around 20 points on average from there. With DeRozan being out, and Lowry being only real attacking option in Toronto, I think that Spurs will try to limit him as much as they can because that would lead to sure win. In last game, in big part of the game, Leonard was guarding Lowry and that have led to Lowry scoring (not kidding) only 6 points. Tonight, I think similar thing should happen against because playing time of these two is same (they are at same time on the floor) and there is huge chance that Leonard will guard Lowry. If that doesn't happen, there is also chance to see Lowry double guarded with help from Green. Lowry can't say he had good time in his career against Spurs- played 10 games and had average of 36 minutes (something similar to number expected tonight) and had average of only 17 points (almost 10 points lower than margin). In those 10 games he had only one over and it was overtime game with 60% for 3pt which was well above his average. Bookies expect Toronto under 100 points tonight and that is another plus. Rotowire predicts him at 19 points. I think this has great value here but again, we didn't saw many games without DeRozan, so sample is small and better to be a little secure here without huge bet.
E.Payton [15.5] OVER 3,5/10 (all bookies) Magic
I was choosing between Vucevic (lower bet) and Parton here. I decided with Payton because of several things and I will try to explain them all. I will start with his form. He has 4 overs in last 5 games with those of those being at only 24 and 29 minutes, while tonight he is expected at much more. His average in last 5 games is 21 points and he has these numbers: 23 against GSW, 20 against Bucks, 14 against NOP (24 minutes), 20 against Denver and 28 against Utah. Orlando is having big problem with injuries on guard positions and they are officially without Meeks for tonight. First back up fo Payton (he was a starter until Payton moved him to the bench) D.J.Augistin probably won't play tonight: he is walking without crutches but carefully. He isn't regarded as long term injury, but should miss Bulls game and maybe even one game after that. Fournier is regarded as GTD player, but he still don't have timeable return and wasn't part of practise (so isn't expected to play). With these injury problems, Payton should get minutes regardless of will there be blowout or not just like against GSW where he palyed close to 40 minutes and scored 23. Bulls are somewhat average in defense against PG position- Carter-williams is bellow average defender, Rondo is above average defender and I think that in time when Payton goes against CW he should score solid amount of points. What is a great thing here, is that Payton tends to "privatize" the ball some times, We saw it against Utah, Denver and GSw where he took 18, 17 and 17 shots.
+ 10,32
"Shumpert"