NBA 17.-23.01

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Hosila

Hosila

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Dez. 22, 2014
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#1
Nets vs Wizards 17.01

It will be a back-to-back meeting between these teams as they played last night in Washington. That actually has a huge importance tonight as the Wizards got humiliated yesterday and revenge factor is something that always has an importance in this league. It is safe to say the Wizards played one of their worst games this season and as their coach perfectly described it – they lacked focus, energy and urgency and they didn`t respect their opponent. The game set a season low in scoring and the biggest margin of defeat at home for the Wizards. Good teams never make these mistakes 2 games in a row and the Wizards see themselves as a top team in the Eastern Conference.

It is easy to think that last night the score was 102-80 for the Nets and it would take a massive 27-point swing for the Wizards to cover tonight, but this is exactly what we expect. Throw this game out of the window for a moment and the Nets are an awful team that has been struggling against good teams. In fact they are only 3-16 against the teams with a winning record this season. Before yesterday they had lost 7 games in a row and are just hanging around without having real identity. Their struggles are actually easy to explain as many of their key players (Williams, Lopez, Johnson) are on offer and tradeable pieces, which is never a good thing for a team chemistry. Even a good win is unlikely to change things emotionally and the Nets will keep struggling.

Back-to-back game will hurt the Nets old legs more. They also won`t have Deron Williams and although it didn`t show last night it is likely to play a bigger part in a b2b situation. The Wizards will bounce back tonight and we expect them to release they fury and fix the mistakes from yesterday. Take the Wizards to cover -4.5 points @1.961 from Pinnacle with 2/5 units.

GL
 
#2
Ind@cha

Pick: ind ml@ 1,82 mit 3/10 bei mara

Halte mich kurz da mit Handy online.

Hornets zwar mit guten Ergebnissen zuletzt, jedoch faellt neben jefferson nun auch noch walker aus. Letzterer hat mit 29ppg in den letzten 5 spielen ordentlich zum erfolg beigetragen. Denke seine punkte werden heute am Ende fehlen.

Bei den Pacers faellt nach wie vor g.hill aus. Gestern hat man gegen detroit erst in allerletzter Sekunde verloren. Nach den niederlagen gegen min und phi wieder mal ein hoffnungsvoller auftritt.

Heute kann es gegen geschwächte hornets wieder fuer einen sieg reichen.

Das letzte direkte duell gabs am 20.11. Hier konnten die pacers mit 2 pkt gewinnen. (Hornets mit jefferson und walker)
 
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#3
Atl@chi

Atl-2,5 @1,86 mit 4/10 bei mara

Atl einfach richtig stark.
Heute da 4. Roadgame und ich denke man will hier auch den viertel sieg. Gegen raptors und wizards mit 20+ gewonnen. Gegen phi wurde ein wenig die spieler geschont...ein zweifel am Sieg gab es jedoch nicht. Der 14 punktsieg gegen boston war noch der knappste.

Chicago auf der anderen seite mmn ziemlich unkonstant. Zwei der letzten spiele wurde gegen die wizards verloren. Die haben gegen die wizards mit 31 gewonnen. Nur mal als kleiner quervergleich.

Die letzte Begegnung der beiden gewann atl mit 93:86.

Atl gefaellt mir einfach saugut...und zwar das gesamte TEAM!

-2,5 is da fast n klacks.
 
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#4
lukelammler schrieb:
Ind@cha

Pick: ind ml@ 1,82 mit 3/10 bei mara
Zum Vergrößern anklicken....

Kp wie oft es vorkommt dass ein team mit 30fg% am ende gewinnt. Hornets habens geschafft.
Pacers fuehren bei 6mins rest im letzten mit 5pkt..plötzlich sind sie 4 hinten und retten sich noch in die ot. Dort verkacken sie dann komplett.
Habs spiel nur teilweise gesehn...aber 20 turnovers von den pacers...mein lieber mann.

-3


lukelammler schrieb:
Atl@chi

Atl-2,5 @1,86 mit 4/10 bei mara
Zum Vergrößern anklicken....

Atl gewinnt mit 8.

+3,44

Bleibt n kleines plus am ende
 
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#5
Hosila schrieb:
Nets vs Wizards 17.01

Back-to-back game will hurt the Nets old legs more. They also won`t have Deron Williams and although it didn`t show last night it is likely to play a bigger part in a b2b situation. The Wizards will bounce back tonight and we expect them to release they fury and fix the mistakes from yesterday. Take the Wizards to cover -4.5 points @1.961 from Pinnacle with 2/5 units.

GL
Zum Vergrößern anklicken....

Wizards 99
Nets 90

+1.92 units
 
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#6
Spurs vs Jazz 18.Jan

The defending champions are finally getting back healthy again. Kawhi Leonard had his first game after a long break with a wrist injury and Tony Parker is playing his best basketball yet this season. Having their championship starting lineup healthy is something that has been missing almost since they won the Larry O`Brien trophy and now all their puzzle pieces in right spots they are expected to start gaining some momentum. We all remember how the Spurs played offensively during the Finals and the best word to describe it is effective. What they have been missing in Kawhi Leonard and healthy Tony Parker was in full display two nights ago, when the Spurs scored 110 points against the Trailblazers to secure a 14-point win.

The Jazz are only 14-26, but they have been a positive young team, that plays „positive and happy” games and takes this season as a learning curve. They have their collapses at the defensive end, but being a young team it is something that is totally understandable. They scoring has not been a problem as they average 96.2 points per game. Both teams give their opponents some match up problems defensively as the Jazz will have their strenght and energy at low-post against the aging and slow feet Spurs and San Antonio is head an shoulders above their defenders at guards positions.

As always having a day of rest helps the Spurs. From their last 6 games 5 times the scoring has gone over the offered line when the Spurs are playing after having a 1 day of rest. The games have been beating the total line 12 times in last 15 games played in San Antonio. The signs are there – the Spurs will play a lot better offensively and score at much higher rate than previously this season, while the Jazz are good enough to keep up with their scoring. Take over 196 points @1.960 with 2/5 units from Pinnacle.


GL
 
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#7
00:00
ORL Magic +10 vs. OKC Thunder @1,854 3/10 Pinnacle

Spread ist mir hier zu hoch. OKC mit dem dritten Spiel in vier Tagen und die Matches davor gegen die Rockets und Warriors waren jetzt auch nicht gerade leicht. Mussten auch von Houston heim fliegen und jetzt nochmal nach Florida. Gegen die Warriors lief man schon extrem heiß aber dennoch ein ziemlich hohes Tempo gehen müssen, die Warriors derzeit mit der schnellsten Pace der Liga.
Man wird denke ich hier schon einen Sieg wollen aber gegen Ende könnte es schon sein, dass man RW0 und KD ein Päuschen gönnt.

Die Magic eine sehr talentierte Truppe. Die letzten drei Spiele gegen die Bulls, Rockets und Grizzlies und man konnte zwei Spiele gegen diese Schwergewichte sogar gewinnen. Gegen die Grizzlies vorgestern mit 10 verloren daheim aber die sind stärker als die Thunder derzeit, vor allem jetzt noch mit Jeff Green. Oladipo und Vucevic gefallen mir richtig gut derzeit, sind richtig on Fire und auch bei Payton sieht man einen Aufwärtstrend in seinem Rookie Jahr.

Spread einfach 3 Punkte zu hoch, dafür dass es ein Road Game ist für die Thunder. Sind 7-13 on the Road und hatten anstrengende Spiele hinter sich gegen West Teams. Das letzte Spiel war zwar stark aber da kommt oft wieder ein Downswing. Ob sie das verlieren weiß ich nicht, aber wird IMHO eine enge Kiste.
Auch wenn ich kein großer Freund von Spielen aus der letzten Saison bin. Beide Duelle der Teams innerhalb einer Possession ausgegangen. Sehe hier maximal 3 Poss. Unterschied, eine kleine Überraschung auch möglich denn OKC steht gewaltig unter Druck um überhaupt noch die Playoffs zu schaffen. Da sind solche vermeintlichen Must-Win Games oft die schwierigen Spiele.
 
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#10
Grizzlies vs Mavericks 19.Jan

When it comes to the record teams are quite evenly matched. The Grizzlies are 29-11, while the Mavericks have a record of 28-13. The spread also suggest that teams should be more or less at the same level as it is -3.0 points for the home team. Well, teh thing that gets over looked here is that the Grizzlies are much better home team than most of the teams in the league. They are 16-4 at home and have won 4 games in a row at home including wins against the Spurs and Trailblazers. Memhis has also won 4 games in a row and their struggles couple of weeks ago were mainly cause Zach Randolph was sitting out games with an injury.

The Mavericks have been playing worse than many of us expected (after getting Rondo). 3 unimpressive losses over the last week (DET, LAC and DEN) is something that shows that they are not yet where they want to be.The Grizzlies give them match up problems at low post as they do against most of the teams and Tony Allen historically has been doing a good job guarding Nowitzki.


Mike Conley is questionable for this game and might not play. He has been absent for 2 games and it has not mattered. The Grizzlies have good back up point guards and the way they feed the ball inside to Randolph and Gasol it should not be critical even if Conley sits. Since Randolph returned from injury the Grizzlies have been looking great and we expect them to do a good job while playing at home. Take Grizzlies to cover -3 points @1.925 from Pinnacle with 3/5 units.

GL
 
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#11
PHI@WAS

Pick: under 191,5 @1,96 bei mara mit 2/10

Bei den Sixers spiele ich sehr gerne die under line.

Die 191,5 wurden im neuen Jahr nur 4/10 mal geknackt, wenn PHI beteiligt war, und zwar gegen ATL, LAC, PHX & DET.
Alle anderen Gegner haben es nicht geschafft mehr als 100 Punkte zu machen.

Die vier genannten Teams erzielen alle im Schnitt über 100 Punkte pro Spiel (DET zwar nicht über die gesamte Saison, nimmt man die 24 Spiele seit Anfang Dezember jedoch schon).

WAS hat einen Punkteschnitt von 99,2, also unter 100.
Seit Neujahr sogar nur 96,3 und nie mehr als 105.

Im Schnitt kassieren die Wizards in den letzten 10 Spielen 97,6 Punkte. Im gleichen Zeitraum haben die Sixers 89,8 Punkte pro Spiel erzielt. Ich denke 90 werden die Sixers heute nicht knacken.

Nimmt man die letzten 10 Spiele, so kassieren die Sixers 100,1 Punkte pro Spiel. Allerdings sind hier die oben genannten offensivstarken Teams (105, 127, 112, 107) dabei. Nimmt man diese raus, so bleiben 6 Spiele übrig mit 91,7 Punkte gegen PHI.

Ich denke die Wizzards werden heute an der 100er Marke kratzen - sie allerdings, wenn überhaupt, nur knapp übertreffen.

Von den Sixers erwarte ich ~85 Punkte.

Mein Tipp: 98:88
 
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#12
20:00
PHI 76ers +14 @ WAS Wizards @2 3/10 Pinnacle

Philly hat sich gefangen, spielen mittlerweile halbwegs Basketball. Auch wenn Wroten ausfällt, gerade Noel und MCW gefallen mir sehr gut. Natürlich nicht mal ansatzweise ein gutes Team aber auch keins das man mehr so einfach weghaut.

Die Wizards sind mir derzeit einfach zu unkonstant. Gerade die zwei Spiele gegen Brooklyn haben das mal wieder gezeigt. Zuerst deutlich mit 22 verloren, dann gewonnen mit 9. Die Nets für mich derzeit nicht viel besser als Philly muss ich sagen trotz der großen Namen spielen sie schrecklichen Basketball.

Die Wizards natürlich das bessere Team, dennoch muss man eben sehen, dass sie eine langsame Pace spielen was erstmal für solche Spread ziemlich hinderlich ist, Philly dagegen volle Pulle drauf, wenn die FG% sich im normalen Bereich halten, wird man diese Spread auf jeden Fall covern, das Team ist nicht mehr so abnormal schlecht wie zu Anfang der Saison. Die Wizards in den letzten 10 Siegen nur ein Mal über diese Spread gekommen, dabei auch 2 Spiele gegen die Knicks und eins gegen die Celtics, in allen Dreien nicht an die Punkte rangekommen.

20:30
DET Pistons +8 @ ATL Hawks @1,925 3/10 Pinnacle
DET Pistons ML @4,05 1/10 Pinnacle

Zwei der heißesten Teams der Liga derzeit.
Die Pistons seit dem Abgang von Josh Smith wiederbelebt, 11 der letzten 13 Spiele gewonnen und siehe da: man ist sogar im Playoff-Rennen im Osten.
Mit Drummond und Monroe ein gewaltes Bigmen Duo und auch Jennings wieder mit besseren Leistungen. Man hat schon bei Siegen gegen die Cavs, Mavs, Spurs und Raptors gesehen, dass dieses Team auch gute Gegner besiegen kann und das wichtigste: sie sind on Fire.

Hawks mit 12 Siegen in Folge, auf dem Thermometer wohl ganz oben derzeit was nicht zuletzt an den überragenden Quoten von Kyle Korver liegt. Ein sehr solider Roster ohne wirklichen Superstar aber dafür mit sehr großer Konstanz.

Das Spiel in Detroit vor kurzer Zeit gewannen die Hawks 106:103, sehe heute wieder eine enge Kiste. Gerade nach den 4 Road Games und dieser langen Streak könnte ich mir doch sehr gut vorstellen, dass die heute gebrochen wird. Gegen die Pistons hatte man das vielleicht schwerste Spiel der Siegesserie und die wollen noch in die POs, denn da ist im Osten alles möglich danach IMHO. Werden hier alles geben um sich für die Niederlage im Palace zu revanchieren und die Form haben sie ohnehin um das zu schaffen. Kann mir hier eine Überraschung gut vorstellen!
 
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#13
Derrick Rose to score over 19,5 points @1,85 Tipico 3/10

Derrick Rose in den letzten Spielen wie ausgewechselt. Erinnert an den "alten" Rose vor ein paar Jahren, auch wenn man beim guten Derrick mit solchen Prognosen immer vorsichtig sein soll.

Zuletzt eigene Aussage:

"I think my game is coming along. I’ve been working very hard. I’ve stayed consistent working. I’m really becoming a pro and trying to stay that way.,"
Zum Vergrößern anklicken....

Sehr viel Selbstvertrauen also aktuell vorhanden. Rose hat in den letzten 3 Spielen immer mindesten 23 gescort (32, 29 und 23). Wichtig hierbei: Er nahm sich seine Würfe (22, 20 und 22). Zudem wird Rose heute mit Kyrie Irving auf einen bekanntermaßen schwachen Defender treffen.
 
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#16
Heat vs Thunder 20.Jan

Miami has been struggling really all season long. With most of their players missing games with injuries, they are yet to find any kind of rhythm and put together meaningful streak of games where they would play great basketball. One thing that the Heat organisation still has is the brain trust and coaching staff that knows exactly what they have to do to have a chance in every single game. Against the teams like the Thunder the plan is really simple. If the Heat can make it a half-court affair and keep the possessions limited, they will have an outside chance to win, if they will allow the Thunder to start running, the game is as good as lost.

The Heat know that they are not likely to score 100 points. Being a jump-shooting team, with lot of one-on-one offense from Wade and stare down jump shots from Bosh, they are likely to score close to 90 points at best. This is why their strategy over recent weeks has been slowing the tempo of the games. It has led to underish games, even against opponents that are normaly scoring many points (GSW 89-104, LAL 78-75, LAC 104-90). In fact no Heat games in 2015 have gone over 200 points.

The Thunder have had some massive scoring explotions as of late, but they have shot the ball with extremely high percentage thanks to the lack of defense from their opponents (53% vs GSW and 58% vs ORL). This is something that will change tonight as the Heat will slow the tempo, limit the number of possessions played at both sides of the floor. Miami is still solid team defensively, so the Thunder will not have too many easy scoring opportunities and their shooting percentage is likely to drop. We see it as a game ending around 190-195 points in total. Take under 198.5 points @1.925 with 2/5 units from Pinnacle.


GL
 
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#17
Hosila schrieb:
Heat vs Thunder 20.Jan


The Heat know that they are not likely to score 100 points. Being a jump-shooting team, with lot of one-on-one offense from Wade and stare down jump shots from Bosh, they are likely to score close to 90 points at best. This is why their strategy over recent weeks has been slowing the tempo of the games. It has led to underish games, even against opponents that are normaly scoring many points (GSW 89-104, LAL 78-75, LAC 104-90). In fact no Heat games in 2015 have gone over 200 points.

The Thunder have had some massive scoring explotions as of late, but they have shot the ball with extremely high percentage thanks to the lack of defense from their opponents (53% vs GSW and 58% vs ORL). This is something that will change tonight as the Heat will slow the tempo, limit the number of possessions played at both sides of the floor. Miami is still solid team defensively, so the Thunder will not have too many easy scoring opportunities and their shooting percentage is likely to drop. We see it as a game ending around 190-195 points in total. Take under 198.5 points @1.925 with 2/5 units from Pinnacle.


GL
Zum Vergrößern anklicken....

MIA 86
OKC 94

+1.85u
 
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#18
Warriors vs Rockets 21.Jan

James Harden is a great basketball player. He also has an awesome beard and almost unstoppable drive to the basket. What he lacks though is an abilty to keep his mouth shut when it is needed. There is a Youtube clip of him speaking to his teammates before the game against the Warriors on Saturday. Harden told them that he thinks the Warriors are not a good team although they beat them twice this season. Well after Saturday`s game make it a three times.

Make no mistake, by now most of the Warriors players know what James Harden thinks about them and those who don`t are likely to get informed by their coach Steve Kerr just to give them an extra motivation. Not that they really need that. Leaving aside a bad game against the surging Thunder, the Warriors have looked absolutely fantastic over the last couple of weeks. It has not been even close in these games and it totally makes sense if you know how the Warriors play. If they have a solid shooting night, no team can keep up with them. If they have Bogut playing (he was resting vs OKC), their defense is one of the best in the league. In fact even with Bogut being out for big part of the season, the Warriors are still keeping their opponents at the lowest field goal percentage in the league (.421).

The Warriors pose a problem for the Rockets as they have a great low post defender in Bogut to match well against Dwight Howard and as many points as Harden can score the „Splash Brothers” can score even more. The Warriors have won 3 previous game against the Rockets by an average margin of 16 points. They play at home and want to make Harden to regret his pregame speech 3 days ago. Take the Warriors to cover -7.5 points @1.952 with 3/5 units from Pinnacle.

GL
 
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#19
Hosila schrieb:
Warriors vs Rockets 21.Jan

The Warriors pose a problem for the Rockets as they have a great low post defender in Bogut to match well against Dwight Howard and as many points as Harden can score the „Splash Brothers” can score even more. The Warriors have won 3 previous game against the Rockets by an average margin of 16 points. They play at home and want to make Harden to regret his pregame speech 3 days ago. Take the Warriors to cover -7.5 points @1.952 with 3/5 units from Pinnacle.

GL
Zum Vergrößern anklicken....

GSW 126
HOU 113
+2.86 units
 
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#20
Bulls vs Spurs 22.Jan

We like the Spurs a lot and we think the Bulls are not in a good form at the moment. Chicago has lost 6 of their last 8 games, which alone might not say a lot, but their performance has also been rather poor. It took a monumental 46-point effort from Gasol for the Bulls to beat the Bucks and a game against just poor Celtics to win their 2nd game in last 15 days. Other than that the Bulls have lost to UTA, WAS 2x, ORL, ATL and CLE. Joakim Noah is listed doubtful and will likely miss the game, Mike Dunleavy is listed as questionable – both are obviously important pieces for the Bulls.

The Spurs are probably the toughest team, the Bulls have met for a while, especially now when they are again playing high quality basketball and have key players back in the lineup. 4-game winning streak is one thing, but the Spurs also have been playing excellent basketball again. The Spurs also have to keep playing great as their early season struggles mean that they need to put few good runs together to get the home court advantage for first round of the play-offs. Both players and coach Popovich understand that and have claimed they want to win the game against the Bulls and sweep the 6-game home stand that follows.

This is a momentum based bet. The Spurs are gaining form and have been playing better, while the Bulls have been struggling at both ends of the floor. We expect this trend to continue and see the Spurs winning tonight. Take the Spurs -5 points @1.952 from Pinnacle with 2/5 units.


GL
 
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