Horse Lay Wetten

Dontchaknow · Mai 7, 2016

Hallo liebe Wettforum Community,

ich habe ein System 3 Monate getestet, es geht dabei um Laywetten auf Pferde. Das ganze lief automatisch über einen Bot und ich bin der Überzeugung Value gefunden zu haben mit meinem System. Mein Startkapital beträgt dabei 500, wovon ich 2,5% zu beginn für jede Wette einsetze (liability nicht berücksichtigt). Gewinnziel beträgt 30 pro Tag, sprich dazu müsste ich 3 Laywetten am Tag gewinnen und der Bot hört für den Tag auf weitere Wetten zu setzen. Wenn ich meine Bank verdoppelt habe, werde ich das Risiko bei 1000 noch mal reduzieren bis auf 2% pro Wette und werde aber am Gewinnziel festhalten um meine Bank noch sicherer zu gestalten. Hat da vielleicht jemand eine Idee für einen Staking Plan der meine Bank auch bei einer langen Verlustserie kaum belastet?

https://www.sportwettenvergleich.net/wettforum/wettwiki/back

Hansi · Mai 7, 2016

Das hat die "legendäre" Maria damals dazu geschrieben:

My staking system: I lay in three distinct exchange-price-bands of fixed backer's stakes.

At one end of the scale, if the exchange price available about the horse is less than 3.5 (less than 5/2), I lay to a stake of 1% of my current laying system bank. At the other end, if the price is between 7.5 and 11 (the latter figure being my cut-off: I don't lay anything higher than 10/1), I lay to a stake of 0.4% of my current bank. If the price is in-between these two bands (i.e. prices of 3.6 to 7.4), then I lay to a stake of 0.6% of my bank. As they say in those TV infommercials, "But wait - there's more!": I also combine this staking plan with a ratchet system (see below).

The are two other advantages with this staking system: first, the practicality of the situation when using the exchanges is that the backer's stake (rather than one's own liability) is the value which has to be typed into the little box on the screen, and this makes it quick and simple to do; secondly, nearly a year's figures have proven to me that this method minimises the variability of the results, and that's very, very important ...*

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To summarise, with examples based on a starting bank of £3,000 (if you're reckless enough to try them, you can scale up or down proportionally to your own bank) ...

Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £30 (my liability under £75)

Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £18 (my liability £46.80 - £115.20)

Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £12 (my liability £78 - £132)

Ratchet System

If making profits, I increase all stakes in proportion to the bank on a daily basis. (I'd love to do it on a bet-by-bet basis, but that would assume that anyone following the system can be glued to their screen all afternoon, which isn't realistic. If you're working for a living - shock horror: please excuse my language! - you need to be able to put the bets on your lunch-hour.)

This means that at the end of each day, the next day's "current bank" figure is known. For example, if there's a good start and the £3,000 bank grows, then the stakes are worked out as proportion of the new higher figure, and increase slightly the next day. This may sound insignificant but it makes a huge difference to the results ...*

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In contrast, after a losing day, I don't reduce stakes unless and until 35% of the highest level of the bank is lost, when I essentially re-start using the same percentages, but now of the new "65%-sized bank" ...* :-\

Example: from a £3,000 start, if there's a net loss on the first day, the next day I still stake as if from a bank of £3,000 (i.e. to backer's stakes of £30, £18 and £12 depending on the price about each selection) until reaching £1,950 when those backer's stakes would become £19.50, £11.70 and £7.80 until the bank gets back up to £3,000 again (or - dare I mention it? - down to £1267.50 - a further 35% loss).

The 35% drop is always worked out from the highest point of the bank. If it happens (and so far it hasn't - famous last words?!) I'll explain it again.

It may sound a bit complicated but it's actually very simple. Not easy, but very simple ...* :

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Please don't imagine that I'm claiming this to be a perfect laying system. There are one or two anomalies in it, but after lots of analysis and calculation in the early days, over the last year I've found this system practicable, straightforward and robust. And that's what matters.

Hier kannst du noch ein bisschen mehr lesen, falls es von Interesse ist:

Maria Laying System Revisited: Turning £3000 into £100,000 Like Maria | Sports Trading Life

Maria's laying system - Expert Betting Advice

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Dontchaknow · Mai 7, 2016

Vielen Dank, für deine Hilfe, auch wenn ich den berühmten Maria Staking Plan schon kenne, aber ihn bis zu diesem Moment ausgeblendet habe, vielleicht kann ich ihn noch ein bisschen modifizieren und ihn für meine Bedürfnisse anpassen. Vielen Dank

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ElPanda · Mai 8, 2016

Das hört sich schon mal für den Anfang auf jeden Fall interessant an. [[yo]]

Wie willst du bezüglich der LAY-Auswahl vorgehen?
Nur Statistiken oder bist du sogar ein Pferdeexperte? :mrgreen:

Viel Erfolg schon mal jetzt!

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Horse Lay Wetten

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Hansi

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ElPanda

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