Teil 2/2
Mid-American Conference (MAC) - East
When football fans dream in the summer about the upcoming college football season, not many of them are thinking about the Mid-American Conference. Well end up watching a ton of MAC games down the stretch, however, thanks to an ingenious late-season schedule filled with Wednesday night and Friday night games.
Not many of those games will feature Temple, the newest addition to the MAC, but they will feature the handful of contenders in a wide-open East Division. Ohio easily paced the field in 2006 with its 7-1 conference record but the rest of the division will play catch-up in 2007.
Bowling Green Falcons
BG was a MAC powerhouse when Gregg Brandon first stepped into the head coach role from the offensive coordinator position, going 20-6 straight up (SU) and 13-9-1 against the spread (ATS) in 2003 and 2004. Things have since fallen off, as seen in the schools 10-13 SU and 6-17 ATS record in the last two seasons.
Bowling Green should get back to winning ways this season behind its wide-open offense and multi-faceted athletes at the skill positions. Quarterback Anthony Turner can run as well as pass, receiver Freddie Barnes was the teams third-leading rusher in 2006 and can step in at quarterback and the Falcons boast an already solid group of runners with JUCO transfer Eric Ransom.
The Falcons allowed 28.3 points per game in 2006 despite reducing opponents running and passing by 30 yards each per game. Eight starters return to the defense, including the entire secondary, and Bowling Greens scoring numbers should improve as a result. The Falcons open the season by visiting a pair of Big Ten opponents with brand new quarterbacks, so the upset potential is there.
Predicted record: 8-4
Miami Redhawks
The Redhawks were a goldmine from 2001 through 2005 behind quarterbacks Ben Roethslisberger and Josh Betts, going 42-20 SU and 36-25 ATS over that five-year span. Last year wasnt as great for Miami backers, but it was no fault of quarterback Mike Kokal, who posted good numbers on a 2-10 SU team.
Kokal was victimized by an offensive line that allowed 49 sacks last year, but that line should actually be a team strength in 2007 thanks in part to a pair of starters returning from injuries. Theyll be blocking for another player returning from injury, former 1,000-yard runner Brandon Murphy. If Dustin Woods develops even further as a deep threat, the Redhawks offense could jump by as many as 10 points per game.
The defense is experienced and should also improve from last years numbers, but will be tested early by the MACs best quarterback and four BCS-conference opponents, all of whom the Redhawks face in the month of September.
Predicted record: 7-5
Ohio Bobcats
The Bobcats rebounded from five straight losing seasons to win the MAC East by two games in 2006. The pats on the back were quickly halted by consecutive lopsided losses in the MAC Championship game and the GMAC Bowl. That only 11 starters return is another reason for tempered optimism in Athens, Ohio.
Running back Kalvin McRae is one of the conferences biggest returning stars but wont see many familiar faces in green and white once the season starts. Ohio has new starters at quarterback, fullback, center, left tackle, one of the wideout spots and both tight end slots. The defense improved by 12.4 points per game allowed in 2006, but lost all its starting linebackers for 2007.
Frank Solich is as big as names get among MAC head coaches following his tenure at Nebraska, and he did a great job in his second season at Ohio. He has to overcome big losses at key positions, but has the schedule to be bowl-eligible in 2007 for the second straight season.
Predicted record: 6-6
Kent State Golden Flashes
Kent State improved to 5-3 in MAC play one year after going 0-8. The Golden Flashes were 4-4 ATS in conference play but could have been 7-1 ATS if their kicking game hadnt been so bad. Going 2-for-10 on field goal attempts is abysmal, but the dearth of attempts says the coaches had no faith in the kickers and frequently ran plays on fourth down in the red zone.
In any case, the Flashes have a lot of talent returning this fall, led by mobile quarterback Julian Edelman and tiny running back Eugene Jarvis. Behind its experienced offensive line, Kent State should once again be able to run the football in 2007.
The passing game will be problematic, both on offense and defense, with the Flashes losing their only deep threat as well as a pair of all-conference performers in the secondary. The defensive line should get plenty of pressure on opposing MAC quarterbacks and theres depth at linebacker. Kent States schedule ends nicely but the teams record could be in tatters by the time November hits.
Predicted record: 4-8
Akron Zips
The Zips were a moneymaker in MAC play in head coach J.D. Brookharts first two seasons, going 12-5 SU and 13-10 ATS in conference play. 2006 was a different story despite continued strong play from the quarterback position, as Akron dipped to 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS against MAC opponents. Things might not get better right away in Akron with only four games scheduled for the Rubber Bowl.
The offense is a good news/bad news proposition. The teams starting running back, receivers and tight ends return, but the Zips dont know whos starting at quarterback and whoever wins the job will line up behind an inexperienced O-line. Similarly, the defense has its good and bad points: the good is almost entirely in the back of the Zips 3-3-5 defense, while the D-line struggles to pressure opposing quarterbacks.
The schedule doesnt look great for a rebound year. Winning hinges on the quarterback position in Akron and its difficult to project success when the position is in the hands of unknowns.
Predicted record: 3-9
Temple Owls
Thanks to its Independent status, Temple scheduled lots of tough games over the past two seasons. It showed in the Owls 1-22 SU record, but they covered the spread in almost half their games thanks to regularly getting 30-plus points from oddsmakers.
The Owls losing streak was snapped last year with their win over Bowling Green, a good sign for a school entering its first season of MAC play. Temple played a host of MAC teams last season, in fact, and was competitive in more than half of them. With the bulk of its offensive starters back and reduced travel, theres finally some optimism surrounding Temples football team in 2007.
Temple was outscored 45.3-9.7 in 2005 and 41.3-10.9 in 2006. Both lopsided margins, true, but the improvement on both sides of the ball means something. The Owls single-game high on offense was 17 points in 2005, but they had three straight 20-plus point games last year, all against MAC teams. They arent world beaters, but at least the Owls wont be blown out in conference play.
Predicted record: 3-9
Buffalo Bulls
On the plus side, Buffalo nearly doubled its scoring last year from 2005, returns 18 starters and has a head coach in Turner Gill whose enthusiasm wasnt dampened by a 2-10 opening season on the Bulls sideline.
On the minus side, the Bulls are still viewed as a prime contender to fill the role of "Division 1-As weakest football team" Theres not a lot of depth behind all those returning starters and besides, its not like the guys coming back to play another season at UB Stadium put up huge numbers last year.
Thanks to its schedule, Buffalo could be the underdog in all 12 scheduled games this year, which isnt a bad thing. The Bulls are 13-9 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons and were 5-2 ATS as an underdog on the road last season. Something to keep in mind as they visit Rutgers and Penn State in Weeks 1 and 3 respectively, where theyre certain to face 30-plus point spreads.
Predicted record: 1-11
Mid-American Conference (MAC) - West
Thanks to this conference's brilliant marketing idea to play games on Friday nights, you'll probably see more MAC games than you might normally see on TV. And if people are watching, then they're probably betting.
Last year, teams like Western Michigan and Central Michigan came up as big winners at the sportsbook and there will probably be a few surprise winners this year as well. The Midwest might not be the most exciting part of the country, but this conference always provides some action.
Western Michigan Broncos
There were a lot of positives in Kalamazoo last year. They made a bowl game for the first time in nearly two decades, they had strong non-conference games with a win over Virginia and close games against Florida State and Cincinnati - and they made bettors happy with a solid 4-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record against teams from outside the MAC. That momentum should carry them to another successful year in 2007.
The Broncos will be looking for a starting quarterback this summer, but this is a team built on defense. They allowed fewer than 20 points per game last year, and most of their big players are back. Super linebacker Dustin Dulco will be all over the field again and the Broncos secondary that grabbed 27 interceptions last season are also all back to improve on that mark. Watch for this team to potentially go undefeated in the MAC and cover a lot of spreads this season.
Predicted record: 9-3
Central Michigan Chippewas
The MAC has become known as a quarterback factory in recent years, pumping out products like Roethlisberger, Pennington, Leftwich and Charlie Frye. You cant win in this league without a super quarterback and the Chippewas found theirs last year when freshman Dan LeFevour took over early in the season. His 3,000 passing yards and 26 touchdowns were impressive, but for a frosh to get thrown into the fire and throw only 10 interceptions - that seems like a sign of good things to come.
There are weapons at almost every other skill position on offense, so the pressure is on the defense. The 'D' will have to hold strong if this team has a chance of coming anywhere near the 11-2 ATS mark they set last year. The defense was weak against the pass last year, but strong up front. This year it could be the opposite. The secondary will be more experienced, but theyll be weaker up front without DE Dan Bazuin, who was drafted by the Chicago Bears. With a weakened pass rush, the Chips could be more susceptible against passing teams, which could lead to a few blown pointspreads.
Predicted Record: 9-3
Toledo Rockets
Things havent been the same in Toledo since Bruce Gradkowski collected his degree and headed to the NFL. Last year was the Rockets first year without the record-setting quarterback and it wasnt pretty. After three winning season with Gradkowski behind center, Toledo suffered through a 5-7 season last year. The trouble was largely because of a stagnant offense that can be blamed mainly on poor quarterback play.
Right now its anyones guess who will be at quarterback when the Rockets kick off their season against Purdue on Sept. 1. There are three potential candidates who will battle it out through training camp. Whoever it is, hell have the benefit of a good running game behind all conference tailback Jalen Parmele and a rock solid O-line. The defense is good enough to hold its own, but unless one of the QBs in camp turns into another Gradkowski, the Rockets cant expect much better results than the 5-6 ATS record they put up last season, but a favorable schedule should help their straight-up record.
Predicted record: 7-5
Ball State Cardinals
Shhhhh. Nobody is talking about Ball State as we head into the upcoming season, but most people dont know that despite losing seven games they were absolutely golden at the sportsbook, good for an 8-3 record against the spread. We think there might be more pointspread magic this fall.
The Cardinals made all that cash last year largely on the merit of an offense that was blessed with some great speed at running back and receiver and the arrival of a prodigy at quarterback in the form of Nate Davis. That offense will be better this year - and so will the defense. The worst defense in the MAC West couldnt get much worse, but part of last years struggles was created by the introduction of the 3-4 set. Now they have a year of experience with the system and a lot of returning talent to shore up the unit. Keep an eye on this team after they get some tough games against Miami and Nebraska out of the way early on.
Predicted Record: 6-6
Northern Illinois Huskies
If NIU went 7-4 ATS with the nations leading rusher in their backfield, what are they going to do without him? Garrett Wolfe isnt around to carry the offense on his back anymore so that job will have to be picked up by someone else. The problem is, there isnt anyone on the roster that seems capable.
Sophomore Dan Nicholson will be the starting quarterback, but a spotty offensive line wont do him any favors as he tries to get comfortable in the pocket. Expect coach Joe Novak to add some wrinkles to the offense, but no amount of scheming will make up for the 2,147 yards that went with Wolfe to the NFL.
Predicted record: 4-8
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Last year was bad. What else can you say about a 1-11 season? You could point out that it wasnt so bad in the eyes of bettors and the Eagles managed to cover the spread in half their games, which puts a bit of a positive spin on things.
But in truth, their straight-up record tells the real story. This is a team without a true starting quarterback, no game-breaking speed and a defense that probably couldnt stop Joe Paterno from putting together a 100-yard game against them. None of these problems looks like it will get better this year and their only hope is that they catch a few teams looking past them if they hope to make any cash for backers this year.
Predicted record: 2-10
Mountain West
The Mountain West gives bettors one dominant team per season that wins both on the field and at the pay window. Utah in 2004, TCU in 2005 and BYU last year each went undefeated in conference play and combined to go 34-3 straight up (SU) and 28-7-2 against the spread (ATS) in those seasons.
The same three schools are the frontrunners to win again in 2007. The key for bettors is picking the winner from the outset so they can sit back and watch the profits pile up the rest of the season.
TCU Horned Frogs
It begins with the ends in Fort Worth, as in defensive ends Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz. They highlight a defensive unit that held nine opponents to 14 or fewer points last season and returns nine starters to continue the dominance.
The offense has more holes to fill, but head coach Gary Patterson and offensive coordinator Mike Schultz have the experience, guile and athletes to score 30 points per game again this year. Marcus Jackson looks like hell take over at quarterback, another player capable of posting nice two-way numbers in a run-dominated offense.
TCU has very solid special teams to complement its stacked defense and dangerous ´O, a mix that should result in another Mountain West title. The toughest conference road test is the Nov. 8 visit to BYU. Whether the Frogs can imitate Boise State from last year and make a splash in the BCS bowl scene might hinge on their Sept. 8 trip to Austin to play the Longhorns.
Predicted record: 11-1
BYU Cougars
Brigham Young was awesome down the stretch last year, sweeping through the entire conference schedule without a loss and capping the season by embarrassing Oregon 38-8 in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Cougars lost a ton of talent coming in to 2007, however, especially at the skill positions.
Arizona State transfer Max Hall takes over at quarterback behind one of the best offensive lines in the country, which should help him in his first season running the BYU offense. Hall doesnt have game experience but has been a star in the making for quite a while and is older than your average first-year starter. The defense lost a few starters too, but BYU recruits players like no other MWC school so they should continue where they left off last year.
The Cougars have a favorable conference schedule, getting both TCU and Utah at home. Both games will be tough (as always), just as tough as BYUs September trips to UCLA and Tulsa.
Predicted record: 9-3
Utah Utes
The Utes were a bettors dream team in 2003 and 2004 under Urban Meyer, going 22-2 SU and 20-4 ATS over that two-year span. Things have gone a little downhill under Kyle Whittingham, whose teams have gone 15-10 SU and 11-12-1 ATS since his arrival in Salt Lake City in 2005.
Utahs offense should be fine this year, so long as quarterback Brian Johnson can return to his 2005 form after sitting out last season recovering from a torn ACL. The O-line is big and experienced, the receiving corps is stacked and the backfield has some intriguing talent.
The defense lost a lot more than did the offensive unit and itll be tested right away when Utah opens the season at Oregon State on Aug. 30. The Utes host UCLA two weeks after that and then travel to Louisville on Oct. 5. The schedule only gets worse with visits to top conference rivals TCU and BYU.
Predicted record: 7-5
New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos have been operating at a level barely below the MWCs top three schools for a long time, going 27-17 SU and 27-16-1 ATS in conference games from 2001-06. The fact that the Lobos have lost in every bowl appearance under head coach Rocky Long helps keep them under the radar.
Starters return at almost every skill position on offense, but last years scoring average of 21.8 points per game didnt knock anyones socks off. The defense has 10 starters back in the fold, but the fact that the Lobos allowed 472 passing yards to New Mexico State and 464 to BYU shows that theres work to be done in the secondary.
New Mexico will likely return to a bowl game in 2007 but its road schedule will keep conference title dreams at bay.
Predicted record: 7-5
Wyoming Cowboys
The Cowboys posted a 5-3 SU record in MWC play in 2006 to finish tied for third in the conference and outgained all four of its non-conference opponents. They managed to miss the postseason again last year in spite of those encouraging numbers, leaving head coach Joe Glenn with only one bowl appearance in four seasons in Laramie.
Wyomings big-name offensive players return but it wont mean much if an inexperienced line doesnt gel quickly. The D-line is also lacking in game-breaking players and the Cowboys could be overreliant on their linebackers in 2007. Wyoming might be the hardest MWC school to pin down expectations-wise, capable of fantastic and horrible performances in consecutive weeks.
Predicted record: 6-6
Colorado State Rams
Colorado States offense tumbled in 2006, averaging 16.8 points and 77 rushing yards per game one year after scoring 26.8 and rushing for 122 yards per contest. The return of star runner Kyle Bell from a knee injury is causing a lot of optimism in Fort Collins, especially with starters returning to every other skill position for the Rams.
Last seasons horrible final two months will be hard to erase from the teams psyche, though. The Rams opened the season 4-1 SU before losing their final seven games. The fact that they were shut out in Wyoming and held to six points at San Diego State suggests that the Rams need more than Bells return to the backfield to fully rebound in 2007.
Predicted record: 5-7
San Diego State Aztecs
Its a tale of two units at San Diego State this year, as the offense has reason for optimism but the defense could allow some cringe-inducing yardage and point totals. Head coach Chuck Long has a good offensive pedigree as both a player and a coach and his Aztecs this year have the size, skill and depth to double last years measly average of 14.2 points per game.
Unfortunately the defense lost nine of its top dozen tacklers after allowing 27.1 points per game for the second straight year. The Aztecs face consecutive upper-tier Pac-10 quarterbacks to open the season, a huge test for a secondary that lost all four of its starters from 2006.
Predicted record: 3-9
Air Force Falcons
The good news for the Falcons in 2006 was that their defenders allowed 6.5 fewer points per game than they did in 2005. The bad news was that their offensive output decreased by 6.8 points. The net result was a second consecutive four-win season in Colorado Springs.
Air Forces 1-point loss to Tennessee to open last season is even more impressive in hindsight than it was at the time. This years opener comes against a much easier opponent in South Carolina State. Thats a good thing considering the learning curve under new head coach Troy Calhoun. Shaun Carney is a presence at quarterback and could lead the Falcons to an upset or two.
Predicted record: 3-9
UNLV Rebels
UNLVs offense put up nice numbers against its weaker opponents last year but was essentially shut down by most schools with the least bit of football pedigree. How the Rebels fare this year depends on the ability of quarterback Rocky Hinds & Co. to put more consistent pop in the shotgun offense from which UNLV operates.
The defense faces near-impossible tests early in the season with both Wisconsin and Hawaii visiting Las Vegas in September. All of the starting linebackers are back for UNLV, including potential NFLer Beau Bell, but the secondary let opposing quarterbacks complete 67 percent of their passes last year and lost star corner Eric Wright to the pro ranks.
Predicted record: 2-10
Pacific Ten Conference
The Pac-10 has mighty USC in its fold, but many of its other schools have trouble winning respect from the non-West Coast set.
Pac-10 teams, however, were good bets in 2006. The six conference schools that ended up in bowl games were 13-8 against the spread (ATS) when playing non-conference opponents, 11-4 ATS during the regular season. Because they happened so early, UCLAs 21-point win over Utah, Arizona States 29-point win over Nevada, and Arizonas win over BYU were largely forgotten but have significance in hindsight.
Thats worth noting before the 2007 season kicks off with eight Pac-10 teams playing non-conference foes in Week 1.
USC Trojans
Southern Cal is everyones preseason No. 1 and understandably so. But Trojans backers should be concerned that the hype will send USC spreads back into the stratosphere. The school was also a preseason No. 1 in 2004 and 2005 and only went 14-12 ATS in those years thanks to being favored by at least three touchdowns 17 times in 26 games.
Why so much confidence in L.A.? Try the return of 10 starters to the best defense in the country, a Heisman Trophy favorite returning at quarterback, an absolute smorgasbord of talent fighting for the few available jobs and a coaching staff that can effectively run the nations top football factory.
USC lost its pair of 1,000-yard receivers, but thats the closest you can come to poking holes in the Trojans 2007 roster. If you think John David Booty will lack targets this year, you dont understand head coach Pete Carrolls recruiting pipeline. The Trojans are talented enough to go undefeated in any conference in the country. The concern for bettors, as noted above, is the massive spreads theyll face weekly.
Predicted record: 12-0
UCLA Bruins
The Bruins were 4-5 heading into the 2006 homestretch but salvaged the season with three straight wins as an underdog, including a 13-9 stunner over USC. The rally lifted their ATS record to 8-4 before the Bruins allowed a season-high 44 points to Florida State in an Emerald Bowl loss.
Optimism abounds for 2007, however, because 20 starters return from 2006. The defense became a team strength last season, with the Bruins holding four bowl-bound teams to 12 points or fewer. End Bruce Davis highlights an outstanding pass rush that racked up 30 quarterback sacks in just nine Pac-10 games.
UCLAs offense took a step back in 2006, but the units experience alone should ensure a jump from last years average of 23 points per game. Theres uncertainty over who should start at quarterback, but whoever takes the bulk of snaps should be well-protected. New offensive coordinator Jay Norvell promises a trickier offense in L.A. this year, so keep an eye on the opener at Stanford for progress.
Predicted record: 9-3
California Golden Bears
Cal recovered after its opening-week loss at Tennessee last year by rattling off six straight wins and outscoring its opponents 240-94. The Bears went 5-0 ATS during the stretch but 0-6 ATS the rest of the regular season, before trouncing Texas A&M in the Holiday Bowl to finish off a Jekyll-and-Hyde campaign.
The offensive unit looks strong again with DeSean Jackson playing the role of Americas most dangerous weapon, quarterback Nate Longshore returning and Justin Forsett ready to be a 1,000-yard man now that Marshawn Lynch is in the NFL. The Bears have averaged at least 32.6 points per game every year during head coach Jeff Tedfords tenure and shouldnt have a problem matching that number this year.
The problems for Cal in 2007 are on the defensive front seven and with the schedule. The Bears lost a lot of experienced defenders, especially on the line. They are also challenged by the fact that they have to visit all three schools viewed as their main competitors for second place in the Pac-10.
Predicted record: 9-3
Oregon Ducks
Oregon was 7-2 straight up (SU) before a trio of duds to close the regular season sent the Ducks waddling toward the not-so-prestigious Las Vegas Bowl, where they were promptly handed a 30-point loss by BYU.
Theres hope in Eugene for 2007, though. Dennis Dixon is the unquestioned starter at quarterback, has a potentially great runner behind him in Jonathan Stewart and has some freakish targets on the outside, led by Jaison Williams who weighs 240 and has sprinters speed. The O-line is above average by conference standards. The Ducks 2006 defensive numbers were skewed by the late collapse, when they allowed at least 30 points in each of the final four games. Theres too much experience for a repeat performance.
The Ducks posted a winning ATS record in the Pac-10 for the fourth straight year in 2006 and have a friendlier conference schedule this time around. If Dixon develops as hoped, the Ducks will be a bettors boon for a fifth straight season.
Predicted record: 8-4
Oregon State Beavers
OSU was shut out of the national rankings through most of 2006 despite beating USC and finishing third in the Pac-10 standings at 6-3 SU. It took season-ending wins over non-conference foes Hawaii and Missouri to rise to No. 21 following the Beavers 10-win campaign.
Whether Oregon State can reach 10 wins again largely rests on the left arm of new quarterback Sean Canfield. He has one of the conferences best offensive lines in front of him and top-notch talent at the skill positions to support him, led by running back Yvenson Bernard and receiver Sammie Stroughter.
The defense has a host of returning starters and the front seven especially is filled with impact players. The Beavers have a top placekicker in Alexis Serna and Stroughter is almost as dangerous as Cals DeSean Jackson on returns. The black cloud over Cornvallis is the schedule, one that features only one non-conference "gimme" and far more road tests in conference play compared to 2006.
Predicted record: 7-5
Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils appeared in the national rankings in each of the previous five seasons under Dirk Koetter but never fared well against its ranked opponents during those years: ASU was 2-15 SU and 4-13 ATS against ranked teams from 2002 through 2006.
Now Dennis Erickson runs the show in Tempe and there are expectations that he and his coaching pedigree will lead the Sun Devils to big things. And what a schedule Erickson has to start out! The Sun Devils could be 8-0 SU before the challenging part of the conference schedule starts.
Arizona State returns a lot of talent to its offense, including quarterback Rudy Carpenter and running back Ryan Torain, both of whom are expected to flourish under new offensive coordinator Rich Olsens sped-up attack. The defense is problematic, losing half of its top 10 tacklers from last year, but the soft schedule at the beginning of the season could be a confidence-building experience for the unit.
Predicted record: 7-5
Arizona Wildcats
On the plus side, Arizona became bowl-eligible last year for the first time in almost a decade, thanks to a late-season rally that included three SU wins over Pac-10 opponents when the Wildcats had been double-digit underdogs. On the minus side, they have a tough schedule with four challenging road games within the seasons first seven weeks.
Arizona brought in Sonny Dykes to put some charge in an often lifeless offense. The Wildcats averaged only 169 passing yards per game last season whereas Texas Tech averaged 369 per game under Dykes in 2006. It remains to be seen if Arizona has the offensive personnel to run the spread with similar effectiveness, though ´Zona fans remain high on quarterback Willie Tuitama.
The defense returns a ton of experience, though the talented secondary might be frustrated by the front sevens lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Arizona failed to record a sack in six of its nine conference games last year.
Predicted record: 6-6
Washington State Cougars
The Cougars were 6-3 SU and ATS going into the homestretch last year before ruining their chances at a bowl appearance with three straight conference losses as a favorite. Wazzu might be hard-pressed to reach .500 again thanks to an inexperienced secondary and questions about the Cougars ability to run the ball.
Quarterback Alex Brink was second-team All Pac-10 last year, which is saying something in such a pass-heavy conference. He has a savvy line in front of him, but lost some prime targets going into the season.
Washington State hasnt had a winning record when favored under Bill Doba in his four seasons as head coach. The Cougars are a combined 9-17 ATS as a favorite under Doba, who regains control of the defense this year in Pullman.
Predicted record: 5-7
Washington Huskies
Its been said many times but it bears repeating: Washingtons 2007 schedule shows a masochistic side shared by no other school in the nation. If the Huskies dont beat Syracuse in the Carrier Dome in the season opener, UW alumni could return for homecoming to watch an 0-7 team face Arizona.
Looking on the positive side, at least Washington will be an underdog plenty of times this year, giving the Huskies a shot for a second-straight winning season ATS (after posting a losing ATS record in every other season this decade, going 25-41-2 ATS overall from 2000-2005).
Quarterback Jake Locker has a lot of hype to meet and a lot of tough opponents to keep him from doing so. There are too many key bodies to replace on defense and special teams, and as much as head coach Tyrone Willingham is doing right in Seattle, it wont show in this years record.
Predicted record: 3-10
Stanford Cardinal
Stanford took a serious step backwards in 2006, losing eight of its 12 games by three touchdowns or more and ending up as a 3-9 ATS money pit for backers. All this happened despite going 19-12-1 ATS in the previous three seasons. The school hired ex-NFL quarterback Jim Harbaugh to turn things around this year, though its a concern that he lacks Division 1A coaching experience.
The offense should be a lot better in 2007 (it cant get much worse, after scoring just 10.6 points per game in 2006). Quarterback T.C. Ostrander has plenty of experience and a talented group of receivers to help him out. The defense is less a cause of optimism, losing three of its top four tacklers and lacking the blue-chip talent to keep up with Pac-10 talent.
The Cardinal could be a decent ATS bet again this year, but theres no chance of a postseason appearance.
Predicted record: 1-11
Southeastern Conference - East
The national champion Gators brought the most glory to the SEC East, but they weren't the only school to make a dent in the postseason scene last year. Four others from the division played a bowl game last winter and the East went a combined 4-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).
Bettors can expect more of the same this year as far as bowl-bound schools are concerned, but can the Gators count on another national championship game appearance? Theyll be hard-pressed to make the conference championship game with this kind of competition.
Florida Gators
Floridas dominance in the BCS Championship game nailed home the point that the SEC is now the top conference in the country. Thats a source of pride for whoever survives the conference, but that top-to-bottom competitiveness is hell through November. Thats troublesome for the Gators in 2007, considering the talent they lost from last years championship squad.
Gainesville residents would have us believe that the Gators recruit well enough that they can send out a defense as dangerous as last years, but with nine new starters, patrons at the Swamp are bound to see more slipped tackles and blown coverages in September than they did in all of 2006.
The big loss on offense was quarterback Chris Leak. Last years fill-in Tim Tebow was the nations highest-profile backup and wont catch anyone off guard and it remains to be seen how often hell find his rich array of targets. For all the negativity, however, the Gators have great talent taught to do the little things on both sides of the ball and head coach Urban Meyer is blessed with an easier schedule than last year.
Predicted record: 10-2
Georgia Bulldogs
It was a tale of three seasons in Athens last year. The Dawg´D was the talk of the land as Georgia won its first five games, then the focus shifted to the anemic offense as the Bulldogs lost four of its subsequent five games. Then-freshman quarterback Matthew Stafford gave hope for 2007, however, when he led Georgia to a trio of season-ending wins against some of the toughest defenses in the nation.
The optimism should be tempered a little by an early schedule that has the Dawgs visiting ´Bama and the Vols (as well as hosting South Carolina and Oklahoma State) through Octobers first weekend.
Stafford has the arm to be a star and it could happen as soon as this season if his receivers hang onto the ball better than they did last season. The O-line has some young starters but it should be a team strength while opening holes for a variety of backs. That all adds up to improved offensive production, but the sheer volume of new starters on defense should keep Georgia away from a 10-win regular season again.
Predicted record: 9-3
South Carolina Gamecocks
Steve Spurrier went 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS in his first year in Columbia, then 8-5 SU and 9-3 ATS record in his second. South Carolinas placement in the mighty East lets Spurriers boys slip under the radar as much as you can in the SEC, meaning the Gamecocks will likely have some early-season value and could improve even further this year.
The Cocks return 15 of their leading 16 tacklers from 2006, which bodes well for early visits to Georgia and LSU when theyll get plenty of points from oddsmakers. Whether the offense can score enough to steal a SU win or two is the question of the season. Quarterback Blake Mitchell improved through 2006, but isnt a game-breaker. The backs are strong as a group, but that doesnt mean much if the line doesnt improve.
South Carolina played five road games last year, four SEC games and a visit to Clemson. The Gamecocks went 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS and came within a blocked field goal at the Swamp of making it a perfect record. Spurriers team shows up for big games, a good sign in this conference.
Predicted record: 8-4
Tennessee Volunteers
The Vols start the season off on a rotten note, visiting Cal on Sept. 1 to face a Bears team looking for revenge after last years thumping on Rocky Top, then dropping by the Swamp two weeks later to visit the defending champs. Things are reasonably manageable after that, with home games against Georgia and South Carolina and a trip to Tuscaloosa the biggest problems.
Tennessee has some holes to fill if the school wants to win double-digit games and have a shot at the conference title. The passing game, its major offensive strength last season, will rely on an entirely new corps of targets, and quarterback Erik Ainge no longer has the SECs top left tackle protecting him. The losses on defense are also a concern, especially at tackle and in the secondary.
The Volunteers were 8-4 ATS in the regular season last year, obscuring the fact that they maintained their miserable ways as a home favorite. They were 1-3 ATS when laying points at Neyland Stadium in 2006, dropping them to 3-14 ATS since 2004 and 10-26 ATS since 2001 as a home favorite.
Predicted record: 7-5
Kentucky Wildcats
The Rich Brooks era finally delivered in Lexington last year as the Wildcats not only played .500 football in the countrys toughest conference, but upset Clemson in the Music City Bowl. Kentucky flaunted an offense that (barely) managed to score more points than its porous defense regularly conceded.
Quarterback Andre Woodson returns with all his top targets and top runners, so whats not to love about the Cats in 07 with eight home games on their schedule? Quite a bit, actually. Last years schedule had Kentucky visiting most of its toughest rivals, resulting in four games where the Wildcats were +20 or more. This time theyre getting most of the same teams at home, meaning unfriendly lines for bettors.
The defense was too reliant on turnovers last year and managed to get away with its risky approach. But Kentucky allowed its opponents over 450 yards of offense per game, an abominable number the team cant get away with again. The Wildcats success in 2006 also makes them a target in 2007, whereas theyd slipped under the SEC radar in previous seasons.
Predicted record: 6-6
Vanderbilt Commodores
It was a step back for the Commodores in 2006, who went 1-7 SU and 4-4 ATS in conference play after going 3-5 SU and 5-3 ATS in the SEC the year before. Last year still produced a memorable win, however, as they beat Georgia as 14-point road underdogs for the schools first win over a ranked team in their opponent's home stadium.
Vandy has only four road games this season, but all four are against tough SEC opponents, so the upset opportunities are there. The fact that 18 starters (10 on offense) return for 2007 has optimists in Nashville thinking that a .500 season and the schools first bowl appearance since 1982 are not only possible, but likely.
Those optimists should lower their expectations. Returning a huge volume of starters is nice, but recruiting classes that annually rank at or near the bottom of the SEC means Vanderbilts starters are nowhere near the talent level of its conference rivals. Receiver Earl Bennett is a star and quarterback Chris Nickson is exciting, but the Dores have too many opponents with national title hopes to count on a bowl game.
Predicted record: 5-7
Southeastern Conference - West
The 2006 SEC West featured three "haves", a pair of "have-nots" and Alabama, who should always be in the first group but played more like the second.
To the surprise of absolutely no one, the Crimson Tide hired the biggest and most expensive head coach they could find in an effort to keep up with the Jones (or in this case, the Tigers). And seeing as Nick Saban is hardly starting from scratch in Tuscaloosa, its bound to be a tighter race in the West in 2007.
LSU Tigers
LSU officially finished third in the West last season, but by the time they beat division champs Arkansas last November, they were widely viewed as the best in the West if not the entire SEC. This year the Tigers schedule is far friendlier, so much so that they can improve on last seasons 11-2 record despite the loss of some all-world talent to the NFL.
The defense will be the strength of the Bayou Bengals in 2007, bad news for teams visiting Baton Rouge. Five of the Tigers six toughest games are at home this season and the combination of defensive talent and crowd noise will make it impossible for opposing offenses to function as planned. The line might be the nations best and theres speed and depth galore elsewhere on ´D.
Les Miles offense lost its quarterback and top two receivers, but a handful of bruising runners remain as does a very solid offensive line. Matt Flynn has won as LSUs quarterback before and would love to do so again as a senior this year. If he can keep defenses honest, the Tigers could have a spotless record.
Predicted record: 12-0
Alabama Crimson Tide
It wasnt a great year for the Tide in 2006. They had an overall losing record, went 2-6 SU in SEC games and lost to Auburn for the fifth straight season. As such, Nick Sabans assigned tasks are simple: win games, win SEC games in particular, and most specifically, win the Iron Bowl.
His main weapon is quarterback John Parker Wilson and a receiving corps led by 1,000-yard man D.J. Hall. With new offensive coordinator Major Applewhite introducing a lot of innovation to the passing game, Wilson could have the type of season thatll keep Tuscaloosa talking about him for a while. All five starters return to the line, which should help the Tides stable of inexperienced runners.
An improved offense wont mean much, however, if the defense doesnt adjust quickly to the new schemes under the Saban regime. The secondary looks solid, but itll take a couple of games to gauge the front sevens progress. Luckily, Alabamas schedule opens with Western Carolina.
Predicted record: 9-3
Auburn Tigers
No one in the SEC has an easy schedule, but at least one school per season is saddled with an inordinately difficult road slate in conference play. The role will be filled by Auburn in 2007, by virtue of its trips to Florida, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia, schools that combined for a 43-11 record last year.
The Tigers lost a lot of talent and experience coming into this fall, especially on offense. Quarterback Brandon Cox is back, but his leading rusher, receiver and four of the linemen starting in front of him are not. Cox took a beating last season and while he says hes healthy now, how long will that last behind such an inexperienced line?
The defense took a hit as well with some starters graduating, but the depth was there last season to absorb such losses. Head coach Tommy Tuberville knows better than to field a defense that cant dominate. Speed kills on defense and Auburn has speed to burn, meaning those road games listed above could stay closer than oddsmakers project.
Predicted record: 8-4
Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas was the surprise West champion last year and returns a running-back combo of Darren McFadden and Felix Jones that combined for almost 3,000 yards on the ground last year. Whats not to like in 2007?
Theres a bad taste in Fayetteville, for starters, since Mitch Mustain and Gus Malzahn left town. Theyre the local high school quarterback / offensive coordinator combination whose spread offense was to set the world on fire, no matter how much sense it made to pound the rock with the running game.
Then there are the key starters to replace, especially on defense and on the left side of the offensive line. That latter concern should be a worry for quarterback Casey Dick, who had enough problems passing behind last years top-notch protectors. Toward the end of last season, McFadden looked like the best passer on the Razorbacks roster, not a good thing in the defensively-minded SEC.
Predicted record: 7-5
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Sylvester Croom came to Starkville before the 2004 season and hasnt topped three wins since. Whether the Bulldogs can win four or more in 2007 depends on whether an experienced offensive unit can continue to improve.
Mississippi State was only 1-7 straight up in SEC play last year, but went 4-3-1 against the spread thanks to three of the schools losses being by a field goal. Bulldogs backers look at the nine returning starters on offense and think that things have to get better this year. They might be right. The line is solid, quarterback Michael Henig has a gun as well as a deep threat in Tony Burks, and running back Anthony Dixon is a load.
The Bulldogs have a lot of holes to fill on defense, especially on the line. If the ´D doesnt at least match last years 25.8 points per game allowed, then State will have a hard time escaping the three-win rut with an always-challenging SEC schedule on tap.
Predicted record: 4-8
Mississippi Rebels
Folks in Oxford are thinking about a possible bowl season, but the Rebs schedule wont help their cause. All four of their conference home games involve schools expecting to return home with a win, and rightfully so. Missouri is another intimidating visitor this season.
Ole Miss returns a lot of offensive starters but the quarterback picture is muddy, with Brent Schaeffer underachieving last year and Seth Adams a largely unproven senior. Wholl be taking the snaps in November is anyones guess.
The Rebels were a good bet in conference play last year (5-2-1 ATS) largely due to their defense. All-World Patrick Willis is in the NFL now, though, and neither of his fellow starting linebackers from 2006 came back for 2007 either. Ole Miss had only 14 quarterback sacks last year - without run-stuffing Willis behind it this year, the ´D-line has to boost pressure on the opposing QBs.
Predicted record: 4-8
Western Athletic Conference
Boise State was the sweetheart of the BCS rodeo last year, cracking the entry for the elite bowls and acquitting itself marvelously once there. The Broncos upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl bodes well for this years WAC champ, should they make it though the 2007 regular season with an unblemished record.
Not only did Boise State do the conference proud, but the WACs overall 3-1 straight-up (SU) and 4-0 against the spread (ATS) bowl records underlined its improvement in recent years.
Hawaii Warriors
No use avoiding the obvious: the Warriors have been widely-touted as 2007s answer to Boise State (including by us) and have a high-octane run-and-shoot offense to thank for the national attention.
Quarterback Colt Brennan returned after his record-breaking 2006 season along with a trio of receivers who caught 36 touchdown passes between them. Brennan passed for 58 majors last year but will have a hard time matching that total in 2007 for two reasons: Hawaii plays one fewer regular season game and loses three All-WAC offensive linemen. Finding the right fit at running back to replace Nate Ilaoa in June Jones complex offense is also a vital key to BCS success.
The defense lost Jerry Glanville as its coordinator and reverts to a 4-3 under new man Greg McMackin. Thats a bit dodgy, considering the Warriors depth at linebacker and the lack thereof on the D-line. Hawaiis ridiculously favorable schedule, however, will have them 9-0 before facing a challenge. Its also an easy enough schedule to let the Warriors improve on their 46.9 point-per-game average from 2006.
Predicted record: 11-1
Boise State Broncos
Now what? The undefeated run capped by the big bowl win and the proposal to the cheerleader was so January. The 2007 regular season is right around the corner and the Broncos lost so many starters from last season theyll hardly be recognizable to casual fans.
Boise State retained star running back Ian Johnson, however, alongside head coach Chris Petersen and his big bag of tricks. Add a top-notch offensive line, the most defensive talent in the WAC and another non-threatening schedule to the mix and the Broncos are guaranteed another double-digit win season. Another undefeated run to a repeat BCS Bowl appearance is possible, if not likely.
The aerial game will feature an entirely new cast of starters, the defensive front seven lost a ton of talent and new men will fill the major special teams roles. Considering the vulnerability Boise State showed in a couple of WAC games last year, the Broncos are bound to drop one before making the season-ending trek to Hawaii.
Predicted record: 10-2
Fresno State Bulldogs
What happened in Fresno last year? The Bulldogs lost their bite, suffering their first losing and non-bowl season in a dogs age under head coach Pat Hill. They also became Americas worst bet in the process, going 2-10 ATS, with one of those covers being a 32-point loss as 33-point underdogs at LSU.
Things might not immediately bounce back to normalcy, with the school losing six of its top seven tacklers from last year and facing a far tougher non-conference schedule than either of the WACs two frontrunners.
On the plus side, things can hardly go worse than they did last year. The plummet on offense (from 38 points per game in 2005 to just 23 last year) was way too drastic. Fresno State has the second-best O-line in the conference and returns quite a bit of experience at the skill positions. And while the defense lost a lot of starters, the Bulldogs recruit defensive talent as well as any WAC school.
Predicted record: 6-6
Nevada Wolf Pack
The Wolf Pack were tough opponents the last two seasons under head coach Chris Ault, especially at home. They were 17-8 SU and 18-7 ATS overall in 2005-06, 10-2 SU and ATS in Reno.
Ault lost a lot of firepower, however, from an offense that topped 30 points per game in each of those seasons. Nick Graziano is the new man behind center in Nevadas unique "Pistol" formation and the unit also lost its thousand-yard back. Luckily theres plenty of depth at running back and potential at wideout. The defense returns a couple of all-conference talents but not last years coordinator.
Nevada fans would like to think a WAC challenge is in the cards, but the Wolf Pack cant match the top two teams in the conference and will face some key opponents on the road.
Predicted record: 6-6
New Mexico State Aggies
Can the Southeast Louisiana combo of head coach Hal Mumme and quarterback Chase Holbrook make the turnaround complete in 2007?
New Mexico State was horrible on the field and at the betting window in Mummes first year, going 0-12 SU, and 2-10 ATS. The Aggies improved to 4-8 SU and 7-3 ATS last year, largely on the strength of Holbrooks 4,619 passing yards and 34 touchdown passes. Now to be a winner on the field and at the window in the same season - thats the trick of it all.
The passing game will be fine, especially with such an experienced O-line protecting Holbrook. To make the next step, however, the Aggies have to run the ball better and stop opposing runners more frequently. New Mexico State has a home-heavy schedule and improved confidence in its favor, but a lack of recruiting ability going against it.
Predicted record: 6-6
San Jose State Spartans
San Jose State pieced together its first winning season since 2000 last year, then celebrated by booking four straight road games to open the 2007 schedule (with the first three at BCS conference schools).
Quarterback Adam Tafralis had an excellent year in 2006, as did 1,000-yard runner Yonus Davis, the top two parts of a deep backfield on offense. The O-line is decent but the receivers are a question mark.
The Spartans allowed 43 points per game in 2004, Dave Baldwins last year as head coach. That number was more than halved by Dick Tomeys second year in charge. The defenses two biggest stars, linebacker Matt Castelo and cornerback Dwight Lowery, are back and the defensive numbers could be nicer than ever if it werent for that nasty schedule.
Predicted record: 5-7
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Its a new regime as Derek Dooley takes over the head coaching gig for the Bulldogs. The Dooley name carries sway in the southeast and not solely because of father Vinces years at Georgia. The younger Dooley takes over at Tech after an assistant gig at LSU and has an experienced team upon his arrival.
The skill positions are more than adequately stocked compared to other teams expected to vie for the title of "worst Division 1-A team in America". The O-line is experienced and the defense returns 10 starters too.
The Bulldogs should handle the dregs of the WAC in spite of an entirely new regime. Louisiana Techs problem, however, is another tough slate of non-conference games on the schedule and its WAC home games including the conferences two premiere schools.
Predicted record: 4-8
Idaho Vandals
The Vandals hoped for a return to winning ways under Dennis Erickson, but the legendary coach left after just one season along with those high hopes. Robb Akey takes over as Idahos third head coach in three seasons after serving as Washington States defensive coordinator since 2003.
Akey inherits a defense that returns its top players but is experimenting with new formations under a new coordinator. The offense also has a new coordinator too, but only five starters return to put points on the board.
Idaho won three conference games last year for only the second time since 2000 and has the home games to meet last years "success". It depends on how quickly things come together in Moscow, however, and starting the season against mighty USC likely wont help anyones confidence.
Predicted record: 3-9
Utah State Aggies
The good news in Logan is that nearly everyones back on defense. The bad news is that theyre the same crew who allowed opponents to score 39 points per game in 2006. Even worse news is that the production-challenged offense averaged only 11 points per game. The worst news of all? The ´O lost its backfield playmakers from last year.
The Aggies won only once in 2006, a 13-12 squeaker over Fresno State when theyd been 27-point underdogs. Its difficult to look at their 2007 schedule and peg a likely win, but last years shocker against the Bulldogs underlines how anything can happen on any given Saturday.
Predicted record: 1-11
toronto 01.Sept. 2007
[Quellen: wikipedia.de, covers.com]
