Ein schöner Artikel über den Anreiz des Fußballs, vor dem Spiel nie genau sagen zu können, was die Partie bringen wird. In dem Text wird die Frage gestellt, ob es ein Maß für die Vorhersagbarkeit einer Liga gibt. Ein möglicher Anhaltspunkt sind die Quoten, die es auch ermöglichen, die einzelnen Ligen zu vergleichen.Welche Liga bietet eine besonders große Herausforderung, was Voraussagen und Spekulationen angeht?
Which European league is most competitive? | The Football Ramble Blog
"Whatever your opinion of betting, match odds are perhaps one of the best means of assessing our expectations for individual sporting events. Within a small sample size, like even the most astute pundit, bookmakers can get it wrong. (...) However despite the capacity for such week to week turbulence, over a larger sample size, bookmaker odds are as good an indication of what we can expect to see in a football match as any. A team that starts a match at odds of 1.50 is regarded as a 67% chance of winning that match. You will find that over a large enough sample size, teams starting at this price will win at roughly the expected rate. (...) So with this in mind, as means of assessing league by league competitive intensity, we will now take a look at the occurrence rates of matches that featured a team starting at odds of even money of shorter over the last five seasons."
Verglichen werden im Folgenden 7 Ligen und die Partien der vergangenen 5 Spielzeiten. In drei Abschnitten wird die Häufigkeit des Eintretens bestimmter Quoten abgebildet.
Grafik 1 zeigt den prozentualen Anteil der in einer Liga auftretenden Quote für den Sieg eines Team von 2.00 oder weniger. (Was einer implizierten Siegwahrscheinlichkeit von 50% oder mehr entspricht.)
Grafik zwei macht das gleiche noch einmal mit Quoten von genau oder weniger als 1.50, Abbildung drei mit 1.30 und weniger.
"Final Thoughts
Given these numbers it’s easy to see that of the leagues we considered, the English Championship is by far the most competitive. Not once over the past five seasons did this league see a match where a team was considered a 77% or greater chance of victory, whereas the English Premier League, Scottish Premier League, La Liga and Eredivisie saw matches with such a lopsided expectation almost once in every ten matches played.
What the Championship may lack in terms of quality, it certainly makes up for in competition. This unpredictable nature of the league may go a long way to explain its popularity despite its inferior and often jeered standard of play. And while we may enjoy the craft of Europe’s elite performers in leagues such as the Premier League and La Liga, such displays of skill take place in matches where the result is typically a forgone conclusion.
As the gulf between football’s rich and poor continues to emerge, we can only expect to see an increase in the number of matches featuring clubs starting at odds of 1.30 or less. The impact of this on the popularity of leagues which see a high occurrence of such matches, will be intriguing. For bookmakers, enticing punters into betting on these matches will be an interesting exercise."
Which European league is most competitive? | The Football Ramble Blog
"Whatever your opinion of betting, match odds are perhaps one of the best means of assessing our expectations for individual sporting events. Within a small sample size, like even the most astute pundit, bookmakers can get it wrong. (...) However despite the capacity for such week to week turbulence, over a larger sample size, bookmaker odds are as good an indication of what we can expect to see in a football match as any. A team that starts a match at odds of 1.50 is regarded as a 67% chance of winning that match. You will find that over a large enough sample size, teams starting at this price will win at roughly the expected rate. (...) So with this in mind, as means of assessing league by league competitive intensity, we will now take a look at the occurrence rates of matches that featured a team starting at odds of even money of shorter over the last five seasons."
Verglichen werden im Folgenden 7 Ligen und die Partien der vergangenen 5 Spielzeiten. In drei Abschnitten wird die Häufigkeit des Eintretens bestimmter Quoten abgebildet.
Grafik 1 zeigt den prozentualen Anteil der in einer Liga auftretenden Quote für den Sieg eines Team von 2.00 oder weniger. (Was einer implizierten Siegwahrscheinlichkeit von 50% oder mehr entspricht.)
Grafik zwei macht das gleiche noch einmal mit Quoten von genau oder weniger als 1.50, Abbildung drei mit 1.30 und weniger.
"Final Thoughts
Given these numbers it’s easy to see that of the leagues we considered, the English Championship is by far the most competitive. Not once over the past five seasons did this league see a match where a team was considered a 77% or greater chance of victory, whereas the English Premier League, Scottish Premier League, La Liga and Eredivisie saw matches with such a lopsided expectation almost once in every ten matches played.
What the Championship may lack in terms of quality, it certainly makes up for in competition. This unpredictable nature of the league may go a long way to explain its popularity despite its inferior and often jeered standard of play. And while we may enjoy the craft of Europe’s elite performers in leagues such as the Premier League and La Liga, such displays of skill take place in matches where the result is typically a forgone conclusion.
As the gulf between football’s rich and poor continues to emerge, we can only expect to see an increase in the number of matches featuring clubs starting at odds of 1.30 or less. The impact of this on the popularity of leagues which see a high occurrence of such matches, will be intriguing. For bookmakers, enticing punters into betting on these matches will be an interesting exercise."