Hey guys, 2. Bundesliga, one of the toughest leagues to bet on, will start very soon, on Friday 20:30 with the match Duisburg - Kaiserslautern. I'm feeling good this season to play more bets in that league cause my interest became bigger over the years, teams are attractive and odds are often juicy. It's hard to predict but for myself and everybody who's interested I like to write some preseason info. A preview/overview can be a good compass for the season to adjust the own sight on some teams and expect some trends. The sequence can be understood as the final imagined league table ;) Have fun.
1. RasenBallsport Leipzig: Official goal is to make it to the Bundesliga of course. RBL has the best financial ressources & good infrastructure, but we saw last season that big money does not automatically mean success. Was last year the pressure not so high in the first 2. Bundesliga season, this time nothing but rank 1-3, nothing but promotion to Bundesliga, would be a big disappointment for the club and fans. Therefore they have bought talented players which could play in Bundesliga, too, like Selke from Werder Bremen, the three experienced players from RB Salzburg, Bruno, Ilsanker and Sabitzer or Nukan from Besiktas Istanbul who will be central defender with newcomer Orban from Kaiserslautern. Not to forget the other two Salzburg transfers, goalkeeper Gulacsi and Quaschner in front, are good player material. Experienced sports director Ralf Rangnick will be coach as well for this season. After having suffered from burnout some time ago he seems again being ready for the big task. Leipzig will play hard press forward and we can expect attractive games. Preseason matches were convincing with wins against good teams like Liberec, Kazan or a young Southampton squad.
RB Leipzig will be the hotest candidate for winning the 2. Bundesliga round this season and if not at least make it to promotion or relegation. It's hard to imagine a team with that quality will fail to reach their big goals. But let's not forget that their away games will be hard cause fans and ultras hate them for their financial advantage. Furthermore coach Rangnick is generally a nervous character, he worked too much in history and got burnout. It's not easy to form a successful team out of these individual little stars, this could be the only problem in the end.
Estimation: Rank 1-4
2. Karlsruher SC: Karlsruhe was really very close to the 1. Bundesliga but lost brutally in the last relegation match against Hamburger SV. It was nice to see how compact and constructive KSC was playing almost all season long. Consistency and stability could be the big advantage of Karlsruhe this season cause the team has not lost quality players, only Yabo left to RB Salzburg, and will play most time with the same strong formation from last season. Even better they could add some clever players like experienced Austrian striker Hoffer who came from Fortuna Düsseldorf. Thoelke is a talented central defender from Wolfsburg II but only as backup for strong Gulde and Gordon. KSC has had the best defense last season with only 26 goals conceded.
This season they look even better in front and the experience from last season and the relegation drama against HSV has brought this team even more together. Coach Kauzcinski is the right man on board and will guide KSC with a bit of luck straight to Bundesliga again. They have the quality, the mentality and the experience to finally make it this season. The only problem besides the risk of injuries from key players could be the relative weakness at home where they often lost concentration in front of their home fans in the last season. KSC tested against Kazan, Ufa and Malaga with two 2:2 and a 3:1 win over the team from LaLiga.
Estimation: Rank 1-4
3. SC Freiburg: Freiburg’s relegation was a kind of a surprise in the end and I would not have expected it. Losing at home to Paderborn and Mainz, playing only draw in Hamburg, there were much games where they would have deserved a better result. They played by far the better football than Hamburg and partly Stuttgart but football can be brutal, even a win against Bayern was not enough in the end. I don’t want to tell you every detail of transfers but they will miss the services of great players like Mehmedi, Bürki, Sorg, Klaus and Schmid as well as the latest transfer, Vladmir Darida, to name the best. Good news is: They got much money out of these big transfers, some say around 20-25 millions with which they could/can reinvest. Good news is also that defense is still very strong for a 2. Bundesliga team cause no important defensive player has left the club. New players were added like Patric Klandt (FSV Frankfurt), Lucas Hufnagel (SpVgg Unterhaching), Lukas Kübler (SV Sandhausen), Tim Kleindienst (Energie Cottbus), Vincenzo Grifo (TSG 1899 Hoffenheim) and Amir Abrashi (Grasshoppers) and will help to close the gaps in midfield and offense. Abrashi is an aggressive player in midfield and together with talented young players and Schuster they will be able to compensate the loss of Darida. In front they have Petersen and younger talented and hungry players, not to forget Daehli who was long time injured and is happy to come back again.
It was always the big quality from Freiburg and coach Streich to integrate new players after a bad season or even relegation, so it’s nothing new for them. Coach was very humble to announce a goal for the next season, he knows that it won’t be easy and things can go worse than some fans are expecting. All in all I see Freiburg more positive than the club itself at the moment. They have plenty experience with 2. Bundesliga and to integrate new, young and players with a perspective is the specialty of positive maniac coach Streich. Freiburg has the second best market value after RB Leipzig. If things going perfect they can reach rank two or three. But they'll need much time to integrate new players after the best players have left the club and this may affect them in the end negatively.
Estimation: Rank 1-4
4. 1. FC Nürnberg: It’s hard to predict the final table for Nürnberg but I see their situation much better than some of their fans I personally know. The problems last season were made by their own, in a never ending drama with coach Ismael and let's not forget they had some of their best players injured for a longer time. Big advantage is that the terrible last season have made the whole club really getting back on track and doing everything to avoid another unpleasant journey in the shadows of 2. Bundesliga. Nürnberg has not lost much quality players. In defense Pinola was a legend but old, Celustka was not very convincing. Problem is at the moment that new players need time and some are already/still injured. Defensive line-up could become a problem in their first match against Freiburg and the problem rarely playing to nil must become better. But if starting problems will be gone I see huge potential in this Nürnberg team, which is now being pushed by some decent transfers: Kirschbaum is a great keeper from VfB Stuttgart, very talented. Sepsi from Targa is a decent central defender, young talented Leibold came also from Stuttgart, perspective player. Behrens another good transfer from Darmstadt. Kutschke, from Wolfsburg, will be a very good and diligent striker. And not to forget promising right-winger Gislason (came from Kopenhagen) could become a key player.
All in all Nürnberg lacks a bit quality in attack to make it to the first three ranks in the table. Another problem is that Nürnberg lacked technical quality last season and I see no big progress so far when you look at the preparation matches concerning their skills and tactical depth: Defeats against Würzburger Kickers and Bohemians and draws against Celta Vigo and Regensburg. It seems as if Nürnberg must really become a team, become more dangerous in front and need to become more solid in defense.
Estimation: Rank 4-6
5. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: If Lautern looks back they can be really happy and unhappy with last season. Positive is that a quite young squad was able to play for promotion until the last matchday! Negative was the fact that the lack of consistency have cost the promotion in the end and team and coach needed time to let go the mental impact of the missed big chance. Kaiserslautern won’t make it to 1. Bundesliga also this season cause they have lost very good players and will need time to integrate new ones. When you are so close to make it, it is very hard in the next year for the same coach to gather again good energies and motivate and lead the team. Lautern has lost their key players in defense, goalkeeper Sippel and both central defenders Heintz and Orban have left the club to Mönchengladbch, Cologne and Leipzig and will be missed. Vucur and Mockenhaupt, the transfers, will first have to prove if they can compensate the loss. I doubt if the good defensive work from last season (only 31 conceded goals, second best defense) can be repeated. Positive signal is the transfer from Ziegler (Paderborn), a very decent defensive midfielder. Also I have doubts in their away games. With a 3-9-5 record Lautern have played away very limited, too many draws, uninspired offensive game – that Hofman was the best goalscorer with only 6 goals says enough. Halfar and Przybylko are good newcomers though and Mugosa, who was on loan, may surprise positively. All in all Lautern must create creativity and more dominance in their away matches. At home they are often a banker. I see much integration problems and more problems in defense, plus I doubt that Lautern will be much better in their away games, nevertheless a Top 5 rank is possible.
Estimation: Rank 4-6
6. Union Berlin: For some people Union Berlin is the secret favourite for promotion and there are a lot of positive signs that this could not only be a phrase. Player material is now ready to work out better the tactical orders from ambitious coach Düwel who came one year ago and tried to change the style of play which needed time. The first half of the season was disappointing but then they got better and better. Now they have the luxury situation that only Polter in attack is a big loss (14 goals in 19 games) but other key players have not left the club and intelligent and good transfers will make Union even more stronger. Kopplin (18 games) will be replaced as right defender by Kessel from Braunschweig, so no quality loss here. Daube, Fürstner, Korte and Prychynenko from Sofia will make the midfield and defense even better. In offensive game new players Nikci and Thiel will enforce the left wings and in attack newcomers Wood and Quaner will try to close the gap that Polter’s transfer has opened. All in all Berlin have plenty of new players but integrated in an already existing framework. Union has with the now more integrated philosophy of coach Düwel good chances to surprise positively this season, has better player material and an already far integrated team. But they need to manage to realize the defensive ideas (three men defense) of the coach more professional and stop to concede that much goals again. They also need to find a way to compensate the loss of Polter in offense. And finally they need to win more than every second game at home, otherwise they will have no chance to promote. The more I think about it the more I find Union Berlin really as a good secret favourite for promotion if things are working out perfectly! Their preparation was good and tests have been fine and they have won to nil in their last friendles against CP, Tel Aviv and Halle.
Estimation: Rank 4-7
7. Fortuna Düsseldorf: After an excellent first half of the season where Fortuna was on 4th place they messed up completely the second half of last season when they only managed to grab 16 points in 17 games. Oliver Reck failed to bring stability into the ambitious team and in the end the season for Düsseldorf was over very early drifting in the meaningless regions of the league table. This season Düsseldorf wants to be prepared well and the big goal is to make the team playing stable for more than one half of the season; and not only some dreamers say that Düsseldorf is ready for Top 5 with their very good mixture of experienced players and young talents handled by their new coach Kramer. The transfers reflect that good mixture: Take super talent Akpoguma (20) for example who came on loan for two years from Hoffenheim or midfield talent Sobottka from Schalke which are flanked by oldies Haggui and Ya Konan which are very experienced Bundesliga players. Also Koch from Mainz will play a big role in defensive midfield. Strohdiek from Paderborn is also quality defender in the centre. Only in Sararer (Stuttgart) I have my doubts but he will be just back up together with the other newcomer van Duinen (ADO) for great young finnish player Pohjanpalo (still on loan from Leverkusen) and Ya Konan I guess. Düsseldorf needs to bring continuity into the team. A lot of coaches have failed in Düsseldorf lately, Kramer will need time to integrate the new players and form a good team. The loss of Benshop in attack is a problem and maybe Ya Konan will never reach a good form again, who knows, the last tests were quite disappointing concerning the offensive game: Against Pribram, Kiev and Feyenoord Fortuna was not able to score and lost all of the serious tests. Only against Ipswich they did better and won 4:3. Preparation shows that Düsseldorf may turn around things this time: They will need time in the first half of the season but will become better and better. But that’s just my interpretation. They have the player material to reach Top 5 but therefore their offensive game must become faster. I think Fortuna could become a team that will be involved in some attractive and high scoring matches here and there. Last but not least I have to mention that Düsseldorf was only able to win four home matches last season which is a shame when you have that big stadium (54.600 places) and that great fans ;).
Estimation: Rank 4-8
8. Eintracht Braunschweig: I want to say it again: The final table of coming 2. Bundesliga season is absolutely not predictable. So much teams have quite similar quality and ambitions. Why I personally see Braunschweig not better? Well, they had a problematic last season after their relegation and also a lot of injuries. No question, they did well for the fact that they just had been relegated, other teams did much worse in history but the instant promotion was in the end too far away. Their second season won’t be easier I suppose. In Havard Nielson they lost their best goalscorer (8 goals in 30 matches), he was on loan from Salzburg. Also the loss of Kessel and R. Korte to Union Berlin is not a good news. The oldies Kruppke and Dogan have ended their career in the first team. Theuerkauf has left the club to Heidenheim. So Eintracht will have to rely on their new players, if they do their job well, they can reach a good place around fifth or sixth place. More realistic is a secure place in the middle of the table. Newcomers like Hvilsom, Ademi and G. Korte first need to prove themselves. Matuschyk in defensive midfield from Cologne is a good invest though. Schönfeld should do a good job in midfield. Danish attack with Hvilsom and Berggreen could become a good weapon but it’s not sure if Berggreen will stay. Tests were light and shadow: Wins over Shakhtar and Kazan, defeats against Vallecano and Kiev. If the midfield will be restructured fast by the new players and the attack will surprise positively in their 3-5-2 system Braunschweig may surprise positively.
Estimation: Rank 6-10
9. VFL Bochum: The official goal for this season is very humble and was spoken out with the wisdom that this 2. Bundesliga season will be very hard and unpredictable for almost all teams, so they said let’s become better than last season which will be working out very easily in my opinion cause they are better than rank eleven. Big advantage for Bochum is that coach Verbeek can work out his philosophy with all calmness and time he needs. But he has to become more balanced cause last season the offensive football (best attack with Ingolstadt - 53 goals) was attractive but not often successful (55 = most goals conceded). Too much conceded goals at the end made Bochum a decent mid table team but not more. This season they want to prove that they can do much better and again some say Bochum could become a very positive surprise. Verbeek’s philosophy is to dominate the game and to be everytime in the acting and not in reacting position. Oldies Sestak and Forssell have left the club, Butcher ended his career, left defender Holthaus went to Düsseldorf and Latza went to Mainz. All in all quite much quality and experience loss and new players from Hoffenheim (partly have been on loan already) like Weis, Gregoritsch and Haberer will help the club. Hoogland from Fulham brings more experience in defense. Wijnaldum from Eagles will bring young talent into the defense as well. Nando Rafael is old and had no club before but who knows, maybe he will find a good form. In attack they are very dependant on Terodde who was scoring 16 goals in 33 games and was second best striker in 2. Bundesliga last season. Bochum lost some players who made really much games but they were able to compensate the loss of substance I think. Problem for me is that defense must really become better and if Terodde gets injured or has a bad phase, Bochum will have really a big problem cause in attack they don’t have equal alternatives. But let’s not be too pessimistic: Bochum did an excellent preparation with five wins (Dortmund (2:1), PAOK, Duisburg or Oberhausen) and one draw, having only lost their last test against Sparta Rotterdam (2:3 but Bochum played with much youth players, win over BVB was the last "real" test for the season)
Estimation: Rank 6-10
10. Paderborn: Paderborn as a team that relegated from 1. Bundesliga in only 10th place? You may wonder but I think they could be even worse than 10th place and the reasons are obvious. For no team that relegated it’s easy to compensate the loss of financial, infrastructure and of course personal resources. Paderborn lost his great coach Breitenreiter who went to Schalke. And they lost of course much much players, some of them key players, to name the best of them: Elias Kachunga (FC Ingolstadt), Stefan Kutschke (1. FC Nürnberg), Alban Meha (Konyaspor) Lukas Rupp (VfB Stuttgart), Christian Strohdiek (Fortuna Düsseldorf), Mario Vrancic (Darmstadt 98) Jens Wemmer (Panathinaikos Athen). No question they have bought some interesting new ones but Narey, Hoheneder, Ruck, Brasnic, Heuer-Fernandez, Proschwitz (Brentford) and Wydra (Rapid) need to be integrated first and need to prove if they can compensate the loss of the important players. The new coach Gellhaus was long time assistant coach for Luhukay in 1. Bundesliga, he has his heart in Paderborn but also needs to prove first. All in you can’t say where the journey will go but this big coming and going in team will challenge the club. The disappointing tests, only one win, two draws and three defeats against really no big teams, are reflecting that plenty of work has to be done for the new season. If Lakic will be injured again and the midfield won’t work out well even after a longer period of time the season for Paderborn could even end worse than 10th place.
Estimation: Rank 8-12
11. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Last season was a disaster and Fürth was in big trouble. That’s why this season the team is realistic and quite humble. No one expects big things this season and this could be a positive thing, cause when you relax and know you can play without big pressure for big goals, it often gets better and better and magic takes place. Fürth has a decent team I would say. New coach Ruthenbeck will need time as usual when a new coach meets a new team and will install a new team spirit. He wants to be more flexible and will play usually offensive minded at home and more defensive minded away from home, nothing new. Ruthenbeck brought some players from Aalen like Hofmann and Gjasula. Both should start in midfield I think and Trybull from St. Pauli will complete the newcomers in midfield. Kumbela came from Turkey but his fitness was a little problem, if he is fit he is really a good weapon but I cannot say if he will find his great form again we knew from better days for him. Berisha from Viking is an interesting transfer, he scored 24 goals in 94 Tippeligaen matches and is only 21 years old! Also I watch out for the youngsters in team like Schad and Tischler, they could make the next step. Almost forgot that Mielitz came from Freiburg as new goalkeeper but not sure if he or Flekken will play. Flekken was not good in some tests so Mielitz seems to be the first choice. Bcause Korcsmar got injured central defense was completed by another transfer, Franke from Halle. Fürth must become better in offense, only 34 goals last season was a disaster, if they were a bit more unlucky they would play in 3. Liga now. Last season was a big warning sign and I think Fürth will do better this season. Their more offensive approach, back to the roots, might work out, but will also be an invitation for clever playing guests. Let’s see where they will end up.
Estimation: Rank 8-13
12. Arminia Bielefeld: Arminia played a great season in 3. Liga and was champion in the end. Fabian Klos scored 23 goals and is also this season the big hope in the team. Both goalkeepers left but newcomers Hesl and Davari are a very decent ones with already having gathered experience in Bundesliga. Jopek, Behrendt, Görlitz and especially Nöthe are good investments imo. In Nöthe Arminia has more alternatives in front. Coach Meier came in 2014 and I am convinced he will go on with the success story in Bielefeld. I think the defensive game is already working out quite well and test matches in preparation reflected that: They won against Austria Klagenfurt, Brno, HSV and Meppen and conceded no goal at all. Only negative news is the injuries of some players including important players like Brinkmann and van der Biezen but in the long run I trust Bielefeld to secure a very good rank. Their official goal is to not relegate again and I see this as very realistic. Their great mentality and success from last season will give them enough self-confidence to play a good role in 2. Bundesliga. Team seems for me very ready for 2. Bundesliga, team and coach had success together and developed a good mentality. At home they were dominating in 3. Liga their opponents (14-3-2 48:20 goals) absolutely and I expect very strong home matches from Arminia. They have last but not least great fans! If they will find the right balance between offensive and defensive game, they will be successful again. I think they won't play that offensive as they did in 3. Liga but watch out for Klos scoring again.
Estimation: Rank 11-14.
13. St. Pauli: St. Pauli was lucky not to be relegated but they really do not want to repeat the quite poor performance from last season. If they will prevent themselves from relegation battle? In the end I think so cause they have bought in Ryo Miyaichi (left winger from Arsenal) and Lasse Sobiech (central defender from HSV who was already one of the best Pauli players last season (on loan)) very good players. Sobota came on loan from Brugge which was also good deal imo. cause he is looking forward for playing in the European championship for Poland and seems to be very motivated. Unfortunately after the heavy injury of the Japanese hope Ryo there is already some slight pessimism in the beginning of the season and let’s not forget Pauli lost in Trybull, Daube, Schachten, Tschauner, Thorandt and Koch good player material. Daube and Koch were one of the best players last year. Tschauner and Schachten were decent fighters with a good spirit and brave Pauli players. The squad from St. Pauli is younger this season and I see a fresh team with a good team spirit under coach Lienen who came in December last year and is very experienced. Under his guidance St. Pauli will find themselves in the no man’s land of the table in the end in my point of view. What makes me think not so optimistic is the technical limitation of the team, they really need not only to fight but play good football if they want to become better this season. The first match was a less attractive game against Bielefeld (0:0) where even the new stadium Am Millerntor which was reconstructed and now has room for almost 30.000 fans could not help them to play better in the first match.
Estimation: Rank 11-14
14. 1. FC Heidenheim: FCH from Ostalb had a very impressive first 2. Bundesliga season. As a newcomer they were super high-flying with an excellent eighth place in the end. They had one of the best attacks last season and were widely underestimated. Why I see them doing not so well this season? Well, it’s just a scenario but the whole region around Heidenheim is super enthusiastic, dreaming and living in wonderland at the moment. But what will happen when they will experience for the first time a real negative phase? How will the fans react when things are going bad for some period of time? Will super motivating coach Frank Schmidt who is already a legend in the club and coach since 2007 really be able to navigate them in the hard storms of the second 2. Bundesliga season? Only questions I know but fact is that teams will now know better how to play against his team and let’s keep in mind that their best striker Florian Niederlechner (15 goals, 10 assists) has left the club to Mainz. Also nine other players have left the club and even though HDH has done a good job in compensating the loss (Theuerkauf, Frahn, Feick are all good new key players) I have my doubts that team spirit alone is enough to repeat the great last season. On the other side I think HDH is too strong in the end to find themselves really in relegation battle. Their 4-4-2 is based on fast counter attacks and only if things are going well I see them better than rank 10. Defense is usually too good to become real problems but this year I see their offense not so well. First match was a 1:0 against 1860 in a quite poor match without big chances, lucky punch in the end. Maybe I am a bit too pessimistic here.
Estimation: Rank 10-14
15. SV Sandhausen: In 2006/06 SVS played in Oberliga Baden-Württemberg and since 2012/13 they play in 2. Bundesliga and every year some experts are expecting their relegation. Why they always make it in the end? Well the answer is that they are really working as a team with no star issues arising and on the other side they have a very solid defensive work in a 4-2-3-1-System where it’s not easy to break through. Also we can expect that this year it will be hard for their opponents to crack the tough nut from Nordbaden but in the most attractive 2. Bundesliga of all time I think Sandhausen will really have a hard time. The reasons for this opinion are obvious: The good the defense often takes care the bad is their attack and no wonder that they had the worst attack in the last two seasons. If defense will not be 100% safe again SVS will be a sure candidate for relegation. Problem is that in Riemann and Kübler they have lost two key players in defense and new ones (Knaller, Klingmann) will need time to integrate and still need to prove. Kosecki was bought to bring more power into the offense but let’s wait if this talent from Poland will do his job. Also Vunguidica is new to enforce the attack but he unfortunately had a terrible knee injury and will miss many many matches. Some other newcomers were coming from teams from 3. Bundesliga or below and will be integrated. One thing is for sure: SVS will start with -3 points due to official issues. But I’ve heard that this will just strengthen their team-spirit. Coach Schwartz will do a good job again but only team spirit alone will be not enough this hard hard new season. Nevertheless they did a good preparation conceding not much goals and won their first match as an underdog 3:1 in Braunschweig! In the end I think rank 13-16 is realistic.
Estimation: Rank 13-16
... to be continued, comments welcome
1. RasenBallsport Leipzig: Official goal is to make it to the Bundesliga of course. RBL has the best financial ressources & good infrastructure, but we saw last season that big money does not automatically mean success. Was last year the pressure not so high in the first 2. Bundesliga season, this time nothing but rank 1-3, nothing but promotion to Bundesliga, would be a big disappointment for the club and fans. Therefore they have bought talented players which could play in Bundesliga, too, like Selke from Werder Bremen, the three experienced players from RB Salzburg, Bruno, Ilsanker and Sabitzer or Nukan from Besiktas Istanbul who will be central defender with newcomer Orban from Kaiserslautern. Not to forget the other two Salzburg transfers, goalkeeper Gulacsi and Quaschner in front, are good player material. Experienced sports director Ralf Rangnick will be coach as well for this season. After having suffered from burnout some time ago he seems again being ready for the big task. Leipzig will play hard press forward and we can expect attractive games. Preseason matches were convincing with wins against good teams like Liberec, Kazan or a young Southampton squad.
RB Leipzig will be the hotest candidate for winning the 2. Bundesliga round this season and if not at least make it to promotion or relegation. It's hard to imagine a team with that quality will fail to reach their big goals. But let's not forget that their away games will be hard cause fans and ultras hate them for their financial advantage. Furthermore coach Rangnick is generally a nervous character, he worked too much in history and got burnout. It's not easy to form a successful team out of these individual little stars, this could be the only problem in the end.
Estimation: Rank 1-4
2. Karlsruher SC: Karlsruhe was really very close to the 1. Bundesliga but lost brutally in the last relegation match against Hamburger SV. It was nice to see how compact and constructive KSC was playing almost all season long. Consistency and stability could be the big advantage of Karlsruhe this season cause the team has not lost quality players, only Yabo left to RB Salzburg, and will play most time with the same strong formation from last season. Even better they could add some clever players like experienced Austrian striker Hoffer who came from Fortuna Düsseldorf. Thoelke is a talented central defender from Wolfsburg II but only as backup for strong Gulde and Gordon. KSC has had the best defense last season with only 26 goals conceded.
This season they look even better in front and the experience from last season and the relegation drama against HSV has brought this team even more together. Coach Kauzcinski is the right man on board and will guide KSC with a bit of luck straight to Bundesliga again. They have the quality, the mentality and the experience to finally make it this season. The only problem besides the risk of injuries from key players could be the relative weakness at home where they often lost concentration in front of their home fans in the last season. KSC tested against Kazan, Ufa and Malaga with two 2:2 and a 3:1 win over the team from LaLiga.
Estimation: Rank 1-4
3. SC Freiburg: Freiburg’s relegation was a kind of a surprise in the end and I would not have expected it. Losing at home to Paderborn and Mainz, playing only draw in Hamburg, there were much games where they would have deserved a better result. They played by far the better football than Hamburg and partly Stuttgart but football can be brutal, even a win against Bayern was not enough in the end. I don’t want to tell you every detail of transfers but they will miss the services of great players like Mehmedi, Bürki, Sorg, Klaus and Schmid as well as the latest transfer, Vladmir Darida, to name the best. Good news is: They got much money out of these big transfers, some say around 20-25 millions with which they could/can reinvest. Good news is also that defense is still very strong for a 2. Bundesliga team cause no important defensive player has left the club. New players were added like Patric Klandt (FSV Frankfurt), Lucas Hufnagel (SpVgg Unterhaching), Lukas Kübler (SV Sandhausen), Tim Kleindienst (Energie Cottbus), Vincenzo Grifo (TSG 1899 Hoffenheim) and Amir Abrashi (Grasshoppers) and will help to close the gaps in midfield and offense. Abrashi is an aggressive player in midfield and together with talented young players and Schuster they will be able to compensate the loss of Darida. In front they have Petersen and younger talented and hungry players, not to forget Daehli who was long time injured and is happy to come back again.
It was always the big quality from Freiburg and coach Streich to integrate new players after a bad season or even relegation, so it’s nothing new for them. Coach was very humble to announce a goal for the next season, he knows that it won’t be easy and things can go worse than some fans are expecting. All in all I see Freiburg more positive than the club itself at the moment. They have plenty experience with 2. Bundesliga and to integrate new, young and players with a perspective is the specialty of positive maniac coach Streich. Freiburg has the second best market value after RB Leipzig. If things going perfect they can reach rank two or three. But they'll need much time to integrate new players after the best players have left the club and this may affect them in the end negatively.
Estimation: Rank 1-4
4. 1. FC Nürnberg: It’s hard to predict the final table for Nürnberg but I see their situation much better than some of their fans I personally know. The problems last season were made by their own, in a never ending drama with coach Ismael and let's not forget they had some of their best players injured for a longer time. Big advantage is that the terrible last season have made the whole club really getting back on track and doing everything to avoid another unpleasant journey in the shadows of 2. Bundesliga. Nürnberg has not lost much quality players. In defense Pinola was a legend but old, Celustka was not very convincing. Problem is at the moment that new players need time and some are already/still injured. Defensive line-up could become a problem in their first match against Freiburg and the problem rarely playing to nil must become better. But if starting problems will be gone I see huge potential in this Nürnberg team, which is now being pushed by some decent transfers: Kirschbaum is a great keeper from VfB Stuttgart, very talented. Sepsi from Targa is a decent central defender, young talented Leibold came also from Stuttgart, perspective player. Behrens another good transfer from Darmstadt. Kutschke, from Wolfsburg, will be a very good and diligent striker. And not to forget promising right-winger Gislason (came from Kopenhagen) could become a key player.
All in all Nürnberg lacks a bit quality in attack to make it to the first three ranks in the table. Another problem is that Nürnberg lacked technical quality last season and I see no big progress so far when you look at the preparation matches concerning their skills and tactical depth: Defeats against Würzburger Kickers and Bohemians and draws against Celta Vigo and Regensburg. It seems as if Nürnberg must really become a team, become more dangerous in front and need to become more solid in defense.
Estimation: Rank 4-6
5. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: If Lautern looks back they can be really happy and unhappy with last season. Positive is that a quite young squad was able to play for promotion until the last matchday! Negative was the fact that the lack of consistency have cost the promotion in the end and team and coach needed time to let go the mental impact of the missed big chance. Kaiserslautern won’t make it to 1. Bundesliga also this season cause they have lost very good players and will need time to integrate new ones. When you are so close to make it, it is very hard in the next year for the same coach to gather again good energies and motivate and lead the team. Lautern has lost their key players in defense, goalkeeper Sippel and both central defenders Heintz and Orban have left the club to Mönchengladbch, Cologne and Leipzig and will be missed. Vucur and Mockenhaupt, the transfers, will first have to prove if they can compensate the loss. I doubt if the good defensive work from last season (only 31 conceded goals, second best defense) can be repeated. Positive signal is the transfer from Ziegler (Paderborn), a very decent defensive midfielder. Also I have doubts in their away games. With a 3-9-5 record Lautern have played away very limited, too many draws, uninspired offensive game – that Hofman was the best goalscorer with only 6 goals says enough. Halfar and Przybylko are good newcomers though and Mugosa, who was on loan, may surprise positively. All in all Lautern must create creativity and more dominance in their away matches. At home they are often a banker. I see much integration problems and more problems in defense, plus I doubt that Lautern will be much better in their away games, nevertheless a Top 5 rank is possible.
Estimation: Rank 4-6
6. Union Berlin: For some people Union Berlin is the secret favourite for promotion and there are a lot of positive signs that this could not only be a phrase. Player material is now ready to work out better the tactical orders from ambitious coach Düwel who came one year ago and tried to change the style of play which needed time. The first half of the season was disappointing but then they got better and better. Now they have the luxury situation that only Polter in attack is a big loss (14 goals in 19 games) but other key players have not left the club and intelligent and good transfers will make Union even more stronger. Kopplin (18 games) will be replaced as right defender by Kessel from Braunschweig, so no quality loss here. Daube, Fürstner, Korte and Prychynenko from Sofia will make the midfield and defense even better. In offensive game new players Nikci and Thiel will enforce the left wings and in attack newcomers Wood and Quaner will try to close the gap that Polter’s transfer has opened. All in all Berlin have plenty of new players but integrated in an already existing framework. Union has with the now more integrated philosophy of coach Düwel good chances to surprise positively this season, has better player material and an already far integrated team. But they need to manage to realize the defensive ideas (three men defense) of the coach more professional and stop to concede that much goals again. They also need to find a way to compensate the loss of Polter in offense. And finally they need to win more than every second game at home, otherwise they will have no chance to promote. The more I think about it the more I find Union Berlin really as a good secret favourite for promotion if things are working out perfectly! Their preparation was good and tests have been fine and they have won to nil in their last friendles against CP, Tel Aviv and Halle.
Estimation: Rank 4-7
7. Fortuna Düsseldorf: After an excellent first half of the season where Fortuna was on 4th place they messed up completely the second half of last season when they only managed to grab 16 points in 17 games. Oliver Reck failed to bring stability into the ambitious team and in the end the season for Düsseldorf was over very early drifting in the meaningless regions of the league table. This season Düsseldorf wants to be prepared well and the big goal is to make the team playing stable for more than one half of the season; and not only some dreamers say that Düsseldorf is ready for Top 5 with their very good mixture of experienced players and young talents handled by their new coach Kramer. The transfers reflect that good mixture: Take super talent Akpoguma (20) for example who came on loan for two years from Hoffenheim or midfield talent Sobottka from Schalke which are flanked by oldies Haggui and Ya Konan which are very experienced Bundesliga players. Also Koch from Mainz will play a big role in defensive midfield. Strohdiek from Paderborn is also quality defender in the centre. Only in Sararer (Stuttgart) I have my doubts but he will be just back up together with the other newcomer van Duinen (ADO) for great young finnish player Pohjanpalo (still on loan from Leverkusen) and Ya Konan I guess. Düsseldorf needs to bring continuity into the team. A lot of coaches have failed in Düsseldorf lately, Kramer will need time to integrate the new players and form a good team. The loss of Benshop in attack is a problem and maybe Ya Konan will never reach a good form again, who knows, the last tests were quite disappointing concerning the offensive game: Against Pribram, Kiev and Feyenoord Fortuna was not able to score and lost all of the serious tests. Only against Ipswich they did better and won 4:3. Preparation shows that Düsseldorf may turn around things this time: They will need time in the first half of the season but will become better and better. But that’s just my interpretation. They have the player material to reach Top 5 but therefore their offensive game must become faster. I think Fortuna could become a team that will be involved in some attractive and high scoring matches here and there. Last but not least I have to mention that Düsseldorf was only able to win four home matches last season which is a shame when you have that big stadium (54.600 places) and that great fans ;).
Estimation: Rank 4-8
8. Eintracht Braunschweig: I want to say it again: The final table of coming 2. Bundesliga season is absolutely not predictable. So much teams have quite similar quality and ambitions. Why I personally see Braunschweig not better? Well, they had a problematic last season after their relegation and also a lot of injuries. No question, they did well for the fact that they just had been relegated, other teams did much worse in history but the instant promotion was in the end too far away. Their second season won’t be easier I suppose. In Havard Nielson they lost their best goalscorer (8 goals in 30 matches), he was on loan from Salzburg. Also the loss of Kessel and R. Korte to Union Berlin is not a good news. The oldies Kruppke and Dogan have ended their career in the first team. Theuerkauf has left the club to Heidenheim. So Eintracht will have to rely on their new players, if they do their job well, they can reach a good place around fifth or sixth place. More realistic is a secure place in the middle of the table. Newcomers like Hvilsom, Ademi and G. Korte first need to prove themselves. Matuschyk in defensive midfield from Cologne is a good invest though. Schönfeld should do a good job in midfield. Danish attack with Hvilsom and Berggreen could become a good weapon but it’s not sure if Berggreen will stay. Tests were light and shadow: Wins over Shakhtar and Kazan, defeats against Vallecano and Kiev. If the midfield will be restructured fast by the new players and the attack will surprise positively in their 3-5-2 system Braunschweig may surprise positively.
Estimation: Rank 6-10
9. VFL Bochum: The official goal for this season is very humble and was spoken out with the wisdom that this 2. Bundesliga season will be very hard and unpredictable for almost all teams, so they said let’s become better than last season which will be working out very easily in my opinion cause they are better than rank eleven. Big advantage for Bochum is that coach Verbeek can work out his philosophy with all calmness and time he needs. But he has to become more balanced cause last season the offensive football (best attack with Ingolstadt - 53 goals) was attractive but not often successful (55 = most goals conceded). Too much conceded goals at the end made Bochum a decent mid table team but not more. This season they want to prove that they can do much better and again some say Bochum could become a very positive surprise. Verbeek’s philosophy is to dominate the game and to be everytime in the acting and not in reacting position. Oldies Sestak and Forssell have left the club, Butcher ended his career, left defender Holthaus went to Düsseldorf and Latza went to Mainz. All in all quite much quality and experience loss and new players from Hoffenheim (partly have been on loan already) like Weis, Gregoritsch and Haberer will help the club. Hoogland from Fulham brings more experience in defense. Wijnaldum from Eagles will bring young talent into the defense as well. Nando Rafael is old and had no club before but who knows, maybe he will find a good form. In attack they are very dependant on Terodde who was scoring 16 goals in 33 games and was second best striker in 2. Bundesliga last season. Bochum lost some players who made really much games but they were able to compensate the loss of substance I think. Problem for me is that defense must really become better and if Terodde gets injured or has a bad phase, Bochum will have really a big problem cause in attack they don’t have equal alternatives. But let’s not be too pessimistic: Bochum did an excellent preparation with five wins (Dortmund (2:1), PAOK, Duisburg or Oberhausen) and one draw, having only lost their last test against Sparta Rotterdam (2:3 but Bochum played with much youth players, win over BVB was the last "real" test for the season)
Estimation: Rank 6-10
10. Paderborn: Paderborn as a team that relegated from 1. Bundesliga in only 10th place? You may wonder but I think they could be even worse than 10th place and the reasons are obvious. For no team that relegated it’s easy to compensate the loss of financial, infrastructure and of course personal resources. Paderborn lost his great coach Breitenreiter who went to Schalke. And they lost of course much much players, some of them key players, to name the best of them: Elias Kachunga (FC Ingolstadt), Stefan Kutschke (1. FC Nürnberg), Alban Meha (Konyaspor) Lukas Rupp (VfB Stuttgart), Christian Strohdiek (Fortuna Düsseldorf), Mario Vrancic (Darmstadt 98) Jens Wemmer (Panathinaikos Athen). No question they have bought some interesting new ones but Narey, Hoheneder, Ruck, Brasnic, Heuer-Fernandez, Proschwitz (Brentford) and Wydra (Rapid) need to be integrated first and need to prove if they can compensate the loss of the important players. The new coach Gellhaus was long time assistant coach for Luhukay in 1. Bundesliga, he has his heart in Paderborn but also needs to prove first. All in you can’t say where the journey will go but this big coming and going in team will challenge the club. The disappointing tests, only one win, two draws and three defeats against really no big teams, are reflecting that plenty of work has to be done for the new season. If Lakic will be injured again and the midfield won’t work out well even after a longer period of time the season for Paderborn could even end worse than 10th place.
Estimation: Rank 8-12
11. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Last season was a disaster and Fürth was in big trouble. That’s why this season the team is realistic and quite humble. No one expects big things this season and this could be a positive thing, cause when you relax and know you can play without big pressure for big goals, it often gets better and better and magic takes place. Fürth has a decent team I would say. New coach Ruthenbeck will need time as usual when a new coach meets a new team and will install a new team spirit. He wants to be more flexible and will play usually offensive minded at home and more defensive minded away from home, nothing new. Ruthenbeck brought some players from Aalen like Hofmann and Gjasula. Both should start in midfield I think and Trybull from St. Pauli will complete the newcomers in midfield. Kumbela came from Turkey but his fitness was a little problem, if he is fit he is really a good weapon but I cannot say if he will find his great form again we knew from better days for him. Berisha from Viking is an interesting transfer, he scored 24 goals in 94 Tippeligaen matches and is only 21 years old! Also I watch out for the youngsters in team like Schad and Tischler, they could make the next step. Almost forgot that Mielitz came from Freiburg as new goalkeeper but not sure if he or Flekken will play. Flekken was not good in some tests so Mielitz seems to be the first choice. Bcause Korcsmar got injured central defense was completed by another transfer, Franke from Halle. Fürth must become better in offense, only 34 goals last season was a disaster, if they were a bit more unlucky they would play in 3. Liga now. Last season was a big warning sign and I think Fürth will do better this season. Their more offensive approach, back to the roots, might work out, but will also be an invitation for clever playing guests. Let’s see where they will end up.
Estimation: Rank 8-13
12. Arminia Bielefeld: Arminia played a great season in 3. Liga and was champion in the end. Fabian Klos scored 23 goals and is also this season the big hope in the team. Both goalkeepers left but newcomers Hesl and Davari are a very decent ones with already having gathered experience in Bundesliga. Jopek, Behrendt, Görlitz and especially Nöthe are good investments imo. In Nöthe Arminia has more alternatives in front. Coach Meier came in 2014 and I am convinced he will go on with the success story in Bielefeld. I think the defensive game is already working out quite well and test matches in preparation reflected that: They won against Austria Klagenfurt, Brno, HSV and Meppen and conceded no goal at all. Only negative news is the injuries of some players including important players like Brinkmann and van der Biezen but in the long run I trust Bielefeld to secure a very good rank. Their official goal is to not relegate again and I see this as very realistic. Their great mentality and success from last season will give them enough self-confidence to play a good role in 2. Bundesliga. Team seems for me very ready for 2. Bundesliga, team and coach had success together and developed a good mentality. At home they were dominating in 3. Liga their opponents (14-3-2 48:20 goals) absolutely and I expect very strong home matches from Arminia. They have last but not least great fans! If they will find the right balance between offensive and defensive game, they will be successful again. I think they won't play that offensive as they did in 3. Liga but watch out for Klos scoring again.
Estimation: Rank 11-14.
13. St. Pauli: St. Pauli was lucky not to be relegated but they really do not want to repeat the quite poor performance from last season. If they will prevent themselves from relegation battle? In the end I think so cause they have bought in Ryo Miyaichi (left winger from Arsenal) and Lasse Sobiech (central defender from HSV who was already one of the best Pauli players last season (on loan)) very good players. Sobota came on loan from Brugge which was also good deal imo. cause he is looking forward for playing in the European championship for Poland and seems to be very motivated. Unfortunately after the heavy injury of the Japanese hope Ryo there is already some slight pessimism in the beginning of the season and let’s not forget Pauli lost in Trybull, Daube, Schachten, Tschauner, Thorandt and Koch good player material. Daube and Koch were one of the best players last year. Tschauner and Schachten were decent fighters with a good spirit and brave Pauli players. The squad from St. Pauli is younger this season and I see a fresh team with a good team spirit under coach Lienen who came in December last year and is very experienced. Under his guidance St. Pauli will find themselves in the no man’s land of the table in the end in my point of view. What makes me think not so optimistic is the technical limitation of the team, they really need not only to fight but play good football if they want to become better this season. The first match was a less attractive game against Bielefeld (0:0) where even the new stadium Am Millerntor which was reconstructed and now has room for almost 30.000 fans could not help them to play better in the first match.
Estimation: Rank 11-14
14. 1. FC Heidenheim: FCH from Ostalb had a very impressive first 2. Bundesliga season. As a newcomer they were super high-flying with an excellent eighth place in the end. They had one of the best attacks last season and were widely underestimated. Why I see them doing not so well this season? Well, it’s just a scenario but the whole region around Heidenheim is super enthusiastic, dreaming and living in wonderland at the moment. But what will happen when they will experience for the first time a real negative phase? How will the fans react when things are going bad for some period of time? Will super motivating coach Frank Schmidt who is already a legend in the club and coach since 2007 really be able to navigate them in the hard storms of the second 2. Bundesliga season? Only questions I know but fact is that teams will now know better how to play against his team and let’s keep in mind that their best striker Florian Niederlechner (15 goals, 10 assists) has left the club to Mainz. Also nine other players have left the club and even though HDH has done a good job in compensating the loss (Theuerkauf, Frahn, Feick are all good new key players) I have my doubts that team spirit alone is enough to repeat the great last season. On the other side I think HDH is too strong in the end to find themselves really in relegation battle. Their 4-4-2 is based on fast counter attacks and only if things are going well I see them better than rank 10. Defense is usually too good to become real problems but this year I see their offense not so well. First match was a 1:0 against 1860 in a quite poor match without big chances, lucky punch in the end. Maybe I am a bit too pessimistic here.
Estimation: Rank 10-14
15. SV Sandhausen: In 2006/06 SVS played in Oberliga Baden-Württemberg and since 2012/13 they play in 2. Bundesliga and every year some experts are expecting their relegation. Why they always make it in the end? Well the answer is that they are really working as a team with no star issues arising and on the other side they have a very solid defensive work in a 4-2-3-1-System where it’s not easy to break through. Also we can expect that this year it will be hard for their opponents to crack the tough nut from Nordbaden but in the most attractive 2. Bundesliga of all time I think Sandhausen will really have a hard time. The reasons for this opinion are obvious: The good the defense often takes care the bad is their attack and no wonder that they had the worst attack in the last two seasons. If defense will not be 100% safe again SVS will be a sure candidate for relegation. Problem is that in Riemann and Kübler they have lost two key players in defense and new ones (Knaller, Klingmann) will need time to integrate and still need to prove. Kosecki was bought to bring more power into the offense but let’s wait if this talent from Poland will do his job. Also Vunguidica is new to enforce the attack but he unfortunately had a terrible knee injury and will miss many many matches. Some other newcomers were coming from teams from 3. Bundesliga or below and will be integrated. One thing is for sure: SVS will start with -3 points due to official issues. But I’ve heard that this will just strengthen their team-spirit. Coach Schwartz will do a good job again but only team spirit alone will be not enough this hard hard new season. Nevertheless they did a good preparation conceding not much goals and won their first match as an underdog 3:1 in Braunschweig! In the end I think rank 13-16 is realistic.
Estimation: Rank 13-16
... to be continued, comments welcome
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