Livewetten u. Smalltalk Donnerstag 20.11.25
- Ersteller lukelammler
- Erstellt am
bundesliga heftiger spieltag, könnte ein Remisfestival geben in mainz, augsburg, dortmund, köln und pauli [[nixweiss]]
Cs2 9 Uhr
ground Zero to win vs rooster @2,61 1/10 ggbet
map1 ground Zero @2,35 1/10 ggbet
map2 ground Zero @2,35 1/10 ggbet
denke das ist gut. Ggbet hat gerade noch keine +Handicaps drin. Kommt wohl kurz vor Beginn rein.
ground Zero to win vs rooster @2,61 1/10 ggbet
map1 ground Zero @2,35 1/10 ggbet
map2 ground Zero @2,35 1/10 ggbet
denke das ist gut. Ggbet hat gerade noch keine +Handicaps drin. Kommt wohl kurz vor Beginn rein.
The German Bundesliga has been a hotbed for goals this season,
averaging 3.21 goals per game with several overs hitting. An
incredible 15 out of 18 teams have had more over 2.5 goal games
than under 2.5, with 100% of Bayern Munich fixtures resulting in at
least 3 goals. The over 3.5 goals hit rate is at 42.2%, and 21% of
games have had 5 or more goals. Out of 90 Bundesliga games, only
three have ended 0-0, a very low 4.4% rate. Backing goals has been
profitable, but the bigger questions are why is it happening and
whether it can last?
First off, this goals galore start isn’t new. The early season trend
follows what we’ve seen in recent years. The 2023/24 campaign even
saw 73.8% of matches go over 2.5 goals in the first 10 rounds. There’s
been consistent high-scoring action in the opening third of the season
since the COVID era. So, history says this isn’t a fluke, goals have
been the norm early on.
STEVE WYSS
However, regression usually follows. In rounds 11-20, over 2.5 goal games drop to 58.6% from 64.5%, and over
3.5 goals fall from 46.55% to 37.36%. These are still healthy figures, but they suggest bettors should start being
more selective as we move beyond the early rounds. That dip becomes more profound in rounds 21-30, where
over 2.5 goal games have averaged 55.56%, and over 3.5 just 33.76%. This is typically when the books price
lines higher based on early-season data, and the value flips to the unders side.
There are several reasons why goals dry up as the season goes on. Colder weather, managerial changes, and
tactical shifts all play a role. Teams that leak goals often tighten up, and results become more important than
style. As pressure mounts, pragmatism usually wins. Clubs fighting for European places or survival focus on
efficiency, not entertainment.
The key takeaway is not to abandon goals markets entirely, but to adjust. Early-season trends can mislead if
taken at face value deep into the year. The next few rounds might still provide opportunities on both sides of the
goal line, but sharp bettors will begin switching focus. If history holds true, the value in betting the overs in the
Bundesliga may shift towards well-priced unders, and that turn could come sooner rather than later.
--> im bw-newsletter thematisieren sie dieses mal den "Wintereinbruch", was die Bundesligatore anbelangt, witzig hatte es vor ein paar Tagen noch erwähnt und schön zu sehen, dass das jemand auch so wahrnimmt und sogar ein wenig gerechnet hat
averaging 3.21 goals per game with several overs hitting. An
incredible 15 out of 18 teams have had more over 2.5 goal games
than under 2.5, with 100% of Bayern Munich fixtures resulting in at
least 3 goals. The over 3.5 goals hit rate is at 42.2%, and 21% of
games have had 5 or more goals. Out of 90 Bundesliga games, only
three have ended 0-0, a very low 4.4% rate. Backing goals has been
profitable, but the bigger questions are why is it happening and
whether it can last?
First off, this goals galore start isn’t new. The early season trend
follows what we’ve seen in recent years. The 2023/24 campaign even
saw 73.8% of matches go over 2.5 goals in the first 10 rounds. There’s
been consistent high-scoring action in the opening third of the season
since the COVID era. So, history says this isn’t a fluke, goals have
been the norm early on.
STEVE WYSS
However, regression usually follows. In rounds 11-20, over 2.5 goal games drop to 58.6% from 64.5%, and over
3.5 goals fall from 46.55% to 37.36%. These are still healthy figures, but they suggest bettors should start being
more selective as we move beyond the early rounds. That dip becomes more profound in rounds 21-30, where
over 2.5 goal games have averaged 55.56%, and over 3.5 just 33.76%. This is typically when the books price
lines higher based on early-season data, and the value flips to the unders side.
There are several reasons why goals dry up as the season goes on. Colder weather, managerial changes, and
tactical shifts all play a role. Teams that leak goals often tighten up, and results become more important than
style. As pressure mounts, pragmatism usually wins. Clubs fighting for European places or survival focus on
efficiency, not entertainment.
The key takeaway is not to abandon goals markets entirely, but to adjust. Early-season trends can mislead if
taken at face value deep into the year. The next few rounds might still provide opportunities on both sides of the
goal line, but sharp bettors will begin switching focus. If history holds true, the value in betting the overs in the
Bundesliga may shift towards well-priced unders, and that turn could come sooner rather than later.
--> im bw-newsletter thematisieren sie dieses mal den "Wintereinbruch", was die Bundesligatore anbelangt, witzig hatte es vor ein paar Tagen noch erwähnt und schön zu sehen, dass das jemand auch so wahrnimmt und sogar ein wenig gerechnet hat
