gik tag - winner nacht
pin /
sao paulo - chapecoense over 2.5 2.08 3/10
cardinals - seahaws over 40 1.925 2/10
houston rockets - cavs under 230 1.847 1/10
nuggets - okc under 217 1.81 1/10
76ers -6 1.854 2/10
[[gute_nacht]]
pin /
sao paulo - chapecoense over 2.5 2.08 3/10
cardinals - seahaws over 40 1.925 2/10
houston rockets - cavs under 230 1.847 1/10
nuggets - okc under 217 1.81 1/10
76ers -6 1.854 2/10
[[gute_nacht]]
mal auf einen langsamen beginn bei rockets-cavs hoffen und dann live alle over lines mit nehmen :mrgreen: wenn mal mal überlegt gegen wem die cavs teilweise +110 punkte zugelassen haben[[zwinker]]
sao paulo - chape - zitat, wo ein experte ein over erwartet
"They are the strongest team in Brazil from set pieces, very good aerially and on the break with a quick transition and only two teams (both top 8) have spent more time in the opposition's third of the field. Only Flamengo and Cruzeiro have had more attempts on goal, Chape are 5th for those "on target" (three of the other four above them are top 7 teams) and they have had the most from inside the six yard box. They play to their strengths, fewest short passes, but a lot of crosses into the box. Defensively, they have conceded the fewest attempts on goal along with Palmeiras , Cruzeiro are third . All the other teams who are strong in the categories where Chape thrive are in Copa Libertadores contention.
They have not had a lot of joy in front of either goal, underachieving at one end and allowing more than stats suggest they should at the other. If I looked at those numbers in the cold light of day I would probably suggest they were mid table at worse and better on the road, which they kind of are (collected 15 points away, 17 at home). Of course, bad luck and numbers only go so far, but today we get odds too and those for the visitor look too big. Having highlighted them last week, but sitting out their two games, now feels the right time to take the plunge and even if we are a game or week too early, I am sure we will do well with Chapecoense in the next month .
They won that 3-2 and are unbeaten since and could go 11th with the win tonight.
Sao Paulo are on a great run themselves six wins from nine starts to move from bottom four to top ten, immediately prior to that run I wrote ..............
.......a come from behind 4-3 win at Botafogo where they never really deserved to trail, they had 65% possession, 13 attempts inside the box (3 for the host) and completed twice as many passes with 87% accuracy, posting some really good numbers, especially as a visitor against a top 7 opponent. New signings Hernanes and Marcos Guilherme both played and the former was incredibly motivated on his return to his first professional club and the former Lazio, Inter and Juventus player could hardly have impressed more. He was a constant threat and there will be a lot of interest in his home debut and the club after the big road win and the mood at SP has totally changed in the last 10 days. Marco Guilherme was no less impressive with two goals from off the bench.
Then after a loss next time out .......
.......but if I tell you that the hosts won the all the major stat counts you will understand they were a little unfortunate ............. possession 66%, Shots 26-7, on target 11-4, inside box 17-6, saves 2-8, corners 10-2, completed passes 461-196 with % of 87-73, sometimes the ball is just round and you have to live with that, it doesn't make the pick/idea wrong .
I think SP are playing at a decent level now and we can continue to side with them.
All the highlighted pieces on Chapecoense, Sao Paulo and the Avai-Bahia game show, IMO, the value of the newsletter, almost every email contains something similar, content that is unique, will lead to future winners and cannot be read anywhere else.............that is why you pay the big bucks....circa 1€ per copy !
Anyway, two teams who are better than they have showed results wise for most of the season, but who are in good form now.
Chapecoense are not entirely safe on 40 points, but do have six teams below them and two home games in the next seven days and 43 points would have been enough to survive in 5 of the last 7 seasons, so easy to see how focus might be on those and it is difficult for non-elite teams in Brazil to give of their best three times in a week, something we have discussed often in the past.
Sao Paulo now have those 43 points, but are 10th ,with a lot of momentum behind them and might want to try and push on,a win this evening could take them to within four points off what would have been a hugely unlikely Copa Libertadores spot a month or two ago. They have still to play three of the five teams immediately above them in the table and a win over Chapecoense will certainly keep any Copa dreams alive.
Sao Paulo have an 11-3 home first half goal difference, 15-12 after the break, Chapecoense have scored 12 of 19 road goals in the second half, when they have also conceded 14/25. Chape won the reverse fixture 2-0, both goals coming in the second period, this fixture last season ended 2-2, a game of the proverbial "two halves", with the visitor lead 2-0 at HT, but Sao Paulo scoring two unanswered goals after the break. All that kind of feels like you will get good value in running on any team conceding first, but certainly see plenty of second half action and the "over" market at half time is definitely not without interest.
Officially, I will opt for ..............
"over" 2.5 goals 2.15-2.20"
"They are the strongest team in Brazil from set pieces, very good aerially and on the break with a quick transition and only two teams (both top 8) have spent more time in the opposition's third of the field. Only Flamengo and Cruzeiro have had more attempts on goal, Chape are 5th for those "on target" (three of the other four above them are top 7 teams) and they have had the most from inside the six yard box. They play to their strengths, fewest short passes, but a lot of crosses into the box. Defensively, they have conceded the fewest attempts on goal along with Palmeiras , Cruzeiro are third . All the other teams who are strong in the categories where Chape thrive are in Copa Libertadores contention.
They have not had a lot of joy in front of either goal, underachieving at one end and allowing more than stats suggest they should at the other. If I looked at those numbers in the cold light of day I would probably suggest they were mid table at worse and better on the road, which they kind of are (collected 15 points away, 17 at home). Of course, bad luck and numbers only go so far, but today we get odds too and those for the visitor look too big. Having highlighted them last week, but sitting out their two games, now feels the right time to take the plunge and even if we are a game or week too early, I am sure we will do well with Chapecoense in the next month .
They won that 3-2 and are unbeaten since and could go 11th with the win tonight.
Sao Paulo are on a great run themselves six wins from nine starts to move from bottom four to top ten, immediately prior to that run I wrote ..............
.......a come from behind 4-3 win at Botafogo where they never really deserved to trail, they had 65% possession, 13 attempts inside the box (3 for the host) and completed twice as many passes with 87% accuracy, posting some really good numbers, especially as a visitor against a top 7 opponent. New signings Hernanes and Marcos Guilherme both played and the former was incredibly motivated on his return to his first professional club and the former Lazio, Inter and Juventus player could hardly have impressed more. He was a constant threat and there will be a lot of interest in his home debut and the club after the big road win and the mood at SP has totally changed in the last 10 days. Marco Guilherme was no less impressive with two goals from off the bench.
Then after a loss next time out .......
.......but if I tell you that the hosts won the all the major stat counts you will understand they were a little unfortunate ............. possession 66%, Shots 26-7, on target 11-4, inside box 17-6, saves 2-8, corners 10-2, completed passes 461-196 with % of 87-73, sometimes the ball is just round and you have to live with that, it doesn't make the pick/idea wrong .
I think SP are playing at a decent level now and we can continue to side with them.
All the highlighted pieces on Chapecoense, Sao Paulo and the Avai-Bahia game show, IMO, the value of the newsletter, almost every email contains something similar, content that is unique, will lead to future winners and cannot be read anywhere else.............that is why you pay the big bucks....circa 1€ per copy !
Anyway, two teams who are better than they have showed results wise for most of the season, but who are in good form now.
Chapecoense are not entirely safe on 40 points, but do have six teams below them and two home games in the next seven days and 43 points would have been enough to survive in 5 of the last 7 seasons, so easy to see how focus might be on those and it is difficult for non-elite teams in Brazil to give of their best three times in a week, something we have discussed often in the past.
Sao Paulo now have those 43 points, but are 10th ,with a lot of momentum behind them and might want to try and push on,a win this evening could take them to within four points off what would have been a hugely unlikely Copa Libertadores spot a month or two ago. They have still to play three of the five teams immediately above them in the table and a win over Chapecoense will certainly keep any Copa dreams alive.
Sao Paulo have an 11-3 home first half goal difference, 15-12 after the break, Chapecoense have scored 12 of 19 road goals in the second half, when they have also conceded 14/25. Chape won the reverse fixture 2-0, both goals coming in the second period, this fixture last season ended 2-2, a game of the proverbial "two halves", with the visitor lead 2-0 at HT, but Sao Paulo scoring two unanswered goals after the break. All that kind of feels like you will get good value in running on any team conceding first, but certainly see plenty of second half action and the "over" market at half time is definitely not without interest.
Officially, I will opt for ..............
"over" 2.5 goals 2.15-2.20"
uff sao paulo echt so schlecht unterwegs.. mit welchen Recht hatten die eine Startquote von 1.5
jep, einer aus der Kategorie warum man mit dem Wetten aufhören sollte.. Rockets gehen mit 100 punkten ins 4.Viertel am ende 117... zu begin des 4 Viertels line um die 249 am ende 230, klar hätte auch auscashen können.....
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