OK, meine F-1 Wetten bis jetzt - ist zwar auf Englisch....
YTD stakes 2.081 - back 4.25 - win/loss +2.169
1. a Toyota to be better ranked than a Jordan on Friday @1.5 with B&W - stake 0.167 units (to win 0.25)
Although the Toyotas are quite disappointing until now, they are clearly faster than the Jordans and have additionally the advantage, that their team is much more balanced - IMO this isn´t Toyota against Jordan, but Toyota against Fisichella, because Firman has shown nothing until now
2. a Renault to be better ranked than a Sauber on Friday @1.55 with B&W - stake 0.161 units (to win 0.25)
Renault clearly faster than Sauber and after their fantastic performance in Sepang they should be highly motivated - the bets are for Friday, so there will be less strategy and the faster car should win (I would be much more careful, if it would be for Saturday, because one never knows, how much fuel the teams have on board,....)
3. Alonso on podium @20.75 with Globet - stake 0.048 units (to win 1.0)
I´ve problems to understand these guys at Globet - why another time 20.75 ? - Alonso won´t do it again, but especially Sao Paulo with its quite high retirement rate provides a chance - Button (with the Renault) last year good forth and this years Renault is definitely faster - Renault IMO still the forth fastest car only, but the gap to the top-3 seems to be not as big at it was last year - I´m 100% sure this bet could be sold at 10.0, or so, at Betfair.
4. Da Matta to finish within the points @4.0 with Wettpunkt - stake 0.125 units (to win 0.5)
Toyota is IMO due for a point - their car isn´t as bad as the results pretend (IMO the car has the potiential comparable with BAR or Sauber) - I´m going with Da Matta here because of the higher odds (best odds on Panis I´ve seen are 3.0).
Da Matta is from Brazil and should be highly motivated - addtionally this is the first circuit he already knows - Da Matta has IMO done a good job until now and is very talented (he comes from CART and was also with Toyota there, so this is a slight advantage - hopefully he won´t be as stupid as last years South American Massa) - Mika Salo (Toyota) was last year good sixth - a problem is that the Toyotas are with only one finish this season, but odds are good enough for me
5. Ralf to record a faster lap than Button @1.6 with expekt - stake 0.156 units (to win 0.25)
The BAR should be no competition for the Williams in a "normal" race - Ralf with a very weak start into the season (the 4th place in Sepang was OK, but the performance wasn´t) - I expect the Williams to improve from race to race - they had the problem, that the car wasn´t 100% "ready" at the beginning (especially the aerodynamics was far away from being perfect), but in the long run they should benefit from the fact, that they have taken the risk to start with the new car - I like the "faster lap...." option even better than a normal H2H here
6. Ralf to record a faster lap than Button @1.6 with expekt - stake 0.156 units (to win 0.25)
OK, another time - the difference in performance of the cars is too big to justify such high odds on Ralf
7. Panis to finish within the points @3.5 with bet365 - stake 0.143 units (to win 0.5)
I´m also going with the second Toyota (although I´ve to take most of it at a slightly lower price, because these idiots at Bet365 have limited me without giving me a reason ).
I´m in general switching from Sauber to Toyota - Toyota seems to be underrated after their slow start, but they have a good package (the engine is very good and the chassis is also competitive) - Panis is a very experienced driver and had bad luck in the last two races.
I wouldn´t be too surprised, if we would see a Toyota on the podium this year (Globets 38.75 look tempting, but I´ll wait )
