Goldene Baseball Wettregeln

Can`t lose golden rules for betting bases
Julian Dickinson

Baseball season is a marathon.

We’re only at the halfway point and already a lot of bettors are hitting the wall. With up to 15 MLB games on the board almost every day through a schedule that spans more than six months, your bankroll could fade away like a David Ortiz blast into the Boston night.

Sort of like Jason Giambi this season, bettors can go through highs and lows, streaks and slumps. But the difference is, Giambi will still get paid at the end of it all. You’ll have nothing left but a bad memories if you can’t manage your money over the long season. That’s why most professional bettors will tell you that you need a system.

There are as many theories out there as there are ball games, but there are a few universal truths that can help bettors to make the most of the baseball season. This is what the experts think.

Don’t play favorites

This is the biggest mistake a casual bettor can make. You simply can’t pay the high prices for heavy favorites because the risk doesn’t equal the reward. Losses become too costly over a long season when you’re paying top dollar for a public team, as any Yankees supporter will tell you.

Almost any professional bettor will advise you to steer clear of any side that’s favored by –160 or more. Losing those kind of bets will feel like a John Ruiz low blow after a while. Much better to play underdogs or small favorites to keep your losses under control.

The “three staples”

Baseball’s all about stats. They’ve got a stat for everything under the sun, but the challenge is to figure which are really useful and which are just a waste of time. You could spend days pouring over statistics (just check out the Covers.com matchup pages) but you can finish up more confused than when you started.

Covers Expert Tony George says there are three key stats that can tell you almost everything you need to know. He calls it the “three staples.”

“About 60 percent is pitching,” he told Covers.com in an interview, “which means not only the starters, but the middle relief and the bullpen. Then we use on-base percentage and slugging percentage. And those are the three things we spend the majority of our time handicapping.”

Get in early

This isn’t much help now, but you might want to keep it in mind for next year. Spring is the best time to beat the bookies. That’s the time when oddsmakers are still struggling to get a handle on the character and make-up of teams and realize the impact of young players and offseason acquisitions.

Once the season passes the halfway point, oddsmakers have the league locked down and lines are much tighter from here on in. For bettors, late season baseball is like playing arena football: there’s just not as much room to maneuver.

“There are no more surprises,” says Bodog.com oddsmaker Todd Allen, “as the weak teams that do well and the good teams that are not playing well are now taken into consideration.”

Where there`s smoke there`s fire

The best time to hitch your wagons to a specific team is just before they catch fire. That’s easier said than done, but if you can identify a “warm” team – or one about to heat up – before they start racking up wins and earning attention, you’ll get great value from the sportsbooks.

Bettors should always be on the lookout for underachieving teams that might step up their play. For example, Covers.com’s Ryan Stetson wrote an insightful article on the top 5 teams most likely to take off and take their supporters with them. He points to teams like the Houston Astros, whose bats have finally started to catch up with their fine pitching, and the San Diego Padres, who have a few key players set to return to the lineup, as teams that could receive tremendous value in the upcoming weeks.

Don’t forget about totals

Most casual bettors stick to sides when they’re betting the bases, but there’s plenty of opportunity to cash in with totals. Bodog’s Allen says that totals and runlines are usually the domain of more sophisticated bettors, but maybe that’s just because they know where the value is.

”If you like a team, but the price is too high, take a look at the total,” says Covers Expert Shawn Torrey. “If you have a good idea of how the game is going to play out, the total can be a great betting opportunity.”

Unless you’re talking about Coors Field, totals are generally going to fall between eight and ten runs. A good look at pitchers and recent history can give you enough information to make a confident bet on the total, but don’t forget to consider weather conditions.

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